Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins
My
Prices – Browns 3.60 Redskins 1.32
Vegas
Line - Redskins -7.5
The Redskins have some
significant injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary coming into this match, their offence looks devoid
of ideas at times and personally I don’t think their coached very well. The
Browns always seem to find a way to lose as bad teams
tend to do but I don’t think they are as bad as everybody thinks, they have a
functional QB in Kessler and a decent offensive line which has been blocking
very well and opening gaps for the running backs who by the way are the 4th
best running unit in my rankings after week 3. Washington doesn’t stop the run
very well at all, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and coming in at 22nd
on my ground defence rankings so we get a mismatch there in the Browns favour
and RB Crowell & Johnson should both have big games.
Washington’s secondary
is their strength but is missing FS Hall through injury and that will weaken
the unit so the Browns could have some success through the air but I don’t see
them being able to score consistently, personally I expect them to pound the
rock and keep the ball on the ground.
As I mentioned the Redskins do have
liabilities on their offensive line, trouble is the pass rush is the Browns
weakness as they just don’t have the players to exploit the holes in the
Redskins line so QB Cousins will have time in the pocket to find his receivers but
and this is a big but the Redskins QB’s performances in the red zone have to be
considered here. Cousins has been awful this year deep in the oppositions half
so I can see the Redskins possibly having to settle for more threes than sevens.
Also Washington’s decision not to address
the offensive line in the offseason is affecting the ground game in a negative
way as the Redskins are averaging just 3.9 YPC, this won’t change against the
Browns who happen to defend well against the run.
I don’t trust the Browns to cover the
spread as they are still a bad team but I can see a low scoring game here due
to Washington’s redzone woes and the Browns poor passing game, the line is set
at 47.5 which I feel is a little too high and I’m taking the under at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
My
Prices – Titans 2.60 Texans 1.62
Vegas
Line – Texans -5
The Texans offense was shut out against the
Patriots last week and they didn’t even cross the half-way line until the end
of the 3rd quarter, that’s how bad they were and given all their injuries I
feel this line of -5 is too much to overcome for a very limited offence who
weigh in plum last at number 32 on my offensive rankings, the Titans defensive
line should take advantage of this and get some pressure on QB Osweiler who
needs to have a good game and connect with elite WR Hopkins as often as
possible as the Texans don’t have much of a chance of establishing a ground
game due to their poor offensive line and the Titans ability to stop the rush.
With pro-bowl defender JJ Watt ruled out
for the year the Texans defence has just took a massive downgrade and with the
Patriots giving the league the blueprint on how to beat the Texans last week I
expect the Titans to establish RB Murray to pound the rock and feast on a
defence that gives up a horrible 4.8 yards a carry on the ground and is ranked
a poor 22nd on my run stopping defensive numbers. The Texans do
defend the pass quite well but QB Mariota has some nice offensive weapons in TE
Walker and WR Sharpe so he definitely won’t be completely shut down, but I do
expect the Texans to pressure him at stages during the match.
This is a huge divisional battle for both
teams and I was very impressed last week with the Titans defence as they kept
the leagues number one offence to just 17 points and for me there an underrated
unit, this week they play the league’s worst offence and I can see the Titans covering
the spread here and possibly winning outright but I’m taking the points and backing the Titans +5 at 1.91 with Skybet.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
My
Prices – Rams 3.30 Cardinals 1.43
Vegas
Line – Cardinals -8
Arizona have struggled offensively with the
regression of QB Palmer becoming more and more evident as the season
progresses, the Rams have a stout defence lead by an elite front-7 that can
swarm the quarter-back and the Cardinals have struggled protecting Palmer this
season, so don’t be surprised if the passing attack continues to turn the ball
over. If this happens the Cards will have to establish talented RB Johnson but
the Rams also defend the rush very well allowing only 3.4 YPC, trouble there is
Johnson is possibly the best back in the league and will get his yards
regardless, it’s just a matter of how efficient he will be in the process. For
me it looks like Arizona will be very inconsistent on offence.
If only the Rams had an offence that could
match their elite defence, the only weapon they have on this side of the ball
is RB Gurley who in my opinion will be one of the greats by the time his career
finishes, he needs to have a big game here and he may do as the Cards haven’t
defended the run very well this season allowing 4.8 YPC and ranking 19th
on my run defence numbers. It’s vital that Gurley gets established early and
exploits the Cardinals weakness on the ground because the Rams QB Keenum can’t
be trusted against a very talented secondary and the Rams have nobody in their receivers
to really stretch a top class unit.
This spread of +8 is way too high as I make
it +5 at the very most so we’re getting some serious line value here and for me
when the books are giving more than a touchdown to an elite defence it’s always
worth a second look as the games often turn into defensive battles which are
generally close. The Cardinals are not as good a team as they were last year
and the truth is Palmer is done as a top level QB and if the Rams defence can
get to him on a regular basis I can see him not even finishing the game.
I’m
taking the Rams +8 at 1.95 with Ladbrokes.
