NFL Week Four

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins

My Prices – Browns 3.60 Redskins 1.32

Vegas Line - Redskins -7.5

The Redskins have some significant injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary  coming into this match, their offence looks devoid of ideas at times and personally I don’t think their coached very well. The Browns always seem to find a way to lose as bad teams tend to do but I don’t think they are as bad as everybody thinks, they have a functional QB in Kessler and a decent offensive line which has been blocking very well and opening gaps for the running backs who by the way are the 4th best running unit in my rankings after week 3. Washington doesn’t stop the run very well at all, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and coming in at 22^nd on my ground defence rankings so we get a mismatch there in the Browns favour and RB Crowell & Johnson should both have big games. 

Washington’s secondary is their strength but is missing FS Hall through injury and that will weaken the unit so the Browns could have some success through the air but I don’t see them being able to score consistently, personally I expect them to pound the rock and keep the ball on the ground.

As I mentioned the Redskins do have liabilities on their offensive line, trouble is the pass rush is the Browns weakness as they just don’t have the players to exploit the holes in the Redskins line so QB Cousins will have time in the pocket to find his receivers but and this is a big but the Redskins QB’s performances in the red zone have to be considered here. Cousins has been awful this year deep in the oppositions half so I can see the Redskins possibly having to settle for more threes than sevens.

Also Washington’s decision not to address the offensive line in the offseason is affecting the ground game in a negative way as the Redskins are averaging just 3.9 YPC, this won’t change against the Browns who happen to defend well against the run.

I don’t trust the Browns to cover the spread as they are still a bad team but I can see a low scoring game here due to Washington’s redzone woes and the Browns poor passing game, the line is set at 47.5 which I feel is a little too high and I’m taking the under at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

My Prices – Titans 2.60 Texans 1.62

Vegas Line – Texans -5

The Texans offense was shut out against the Patriots last week and they didn’t even cross the half-way line until the end of the 3rd quarter, that’s how bad they were and given all their injuries I feel this line of -5 is too much to overcome for a very limited offence who weigh in plum last at number 32 on my offensive rankings, the Titans defensive line should take advantage of this and get some pressure on QB Osweiler who needs to have a good game and connect with elite WR Hopkins as often as possible as the Texans don’t have much of a chance of establishing a ground game due to their poor offensive line and the Titans ability to stop the rush.

With pro-bowl defender JJ Watt ruled out for the year the Texans defence has just took a massive downgrade and with the Patriots giving the league the blueprint on how to beat the Texans last week I expect the Titans to establish RB Murray to pound the rock and feast on a defence that gives up a horrible 4.8 yards a carry on the ground and is ranked a poor 22^nd on my run stopping defensive numbers. The Texans do defend the pass quite well but QB Mariota has some nice offensive weapons in TE Walker and WR Sharpe so he definitely won’t be completely shut down, but I do expect the Texans to pressure him at stages during the match.

This is a huge divisional battle for both teams and I was very impressed last week with the Titans defence as they kept the leagues number one offence to just 17 points and for me there an underrated unit, this week they play the league’s worst offence and I can see the Titans covering the spread here and possibly winning outright but I’m taking the points and backing the Titans +5 at 1.91 with Skybet.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

My Prices – Rams 3.30 Cardinals 1.43

Vegas Line – Cardinals -8

Arizona have struggled offensively with the regression of QB Palmer becoming more and more evident as the season progresses, the Rams have a stout defence lead by an elite front-7 that can swarm the quarter-back and the Cardinals have struggled protecting Palmer this season, so don’t be surprised if the passing attack continues to turn the ball over. If this happens the Cards will have to establish talented RB Johnson but the Rams also defend the rush very well allowing only 3.4 YPC, trouble there is Johnson is possibly the best back in the league and will get his yards regardless, it’s just a matter of how efficient he will be in the process. For me it looks like Arizona will be very inconsistent on offence.

If only the Rams had an offence that could match their elite defence, the only weapon they have on this side of the ball is RB Gurley who in my opinion will be one of the greats by the time his career finishes, he needs to have a big game here and he may do as the Cards haven’t defended the run very well this season allowing 4.8 YPC and ranking 19^th on my run defence numbers. It’s vital that Gurley gets established early and exploits the Cardinals weakness on the ground because the Rams QB Keenum can’t be trusted against a very talented secondary and the Rams have nobody in their receivers to really stretch a top class unit.

This spread of +8 is way too high as I make it +5 at the very most so we’re getting some serious line value here and for me when the books are giving more than a touchdown to an elite defence it’s always worth a second look as the games often turn into defensive battles which are generally close. The Cardinals are not as good a team as they were last year and the truth is Palmer is done as a top level QB and if the Rams defence can get to him on a regular basis I can see him not even finishing the game.

I’m taking the Rams +8 at 1.95 with Ladbrokes.

NFL Week Three

WEEK 3 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Vikings 2.90 Panthers 1.52

Vegas Line - Panthers -7

The Panthers finally opened their winning account last week against a poor 49ers side after losing the opener in Denver. However, their struggles in Denver were predictable as their offensive tackles are a liability and they couldn't protect QB Newton against the fierce Denver pass rush.

This will prove to be a major problem again in this matchup as the Vikings have a couple of dynamic edge rushers in DE Griffen and DE Hunter who will be able to pressure Newton, so Cam’s protection is going to be a issue as the Vikings defence is every bit as good as Denver’s. It would help if the Panthers could run the ball, but that will prove difficult as well. Not only will first choice RB Stewart be missing from this match-up, but the Vikings have one of the top run defences in the NFL, allowing a paltry 3.3 Yards Per Carry , of course QB Newton will pick up a handful of first downs with his legs, but I can't imagine Carolina's offense being overly consistent.

Carolina’s secondary was thought to be the team’s biggest weakness going into the season, but so far it has been strong, it will face a different test though against the Vikings as WR Diggs has been the best receiver in the league over the 1^st two weeks. Vikings QB Bradford is naturally careful with the ball and if he can connect with Diggs on a regular basis then the Vikings will be able to move the chains and score.

The Vikings run game has been non-existent so far this season and can only improve but with RB Peterson out and a Carolina elite front 7 baring down on the QB the Vikings may have trouble moving the chains once more on the ground, but to be fair this hasn’t stopped them racking up two wins in the opening two games.

I think this line is an overreaction to two things, one RB Peterson being out for the Vikings and two Carolina's 46-27 win over San Francisco. The 49ers were coming off a big victory in a late Monday night game then had to travel across the country to play an early start, and yet they hung around while the Panthers made some sloppy errors. I don't think that bodes well for this matchup, as Carolina will lose outright if it commits the same sort of mistakes against one of the best defences in the league.

I’m backing the Vikings +7 at 1.95 with Sporting Bet.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Ravens 1.61 Jaguars 2.65

Vegas Line - Ravens -1

The Jaguars got everyone excited following their Week 1 showing against the Packers, but based on what we saw last Sunday night, Green Bay might not be the team we thought they are. Jacksonville also has some major injury issues with CB Amukamara and OT Beachum banged up and for me it’s difficult to win without your best defensive back and top offensive lineman.

The Ravens’ front-7 has looked awesome over the first 2 weeks, pressuring the QB and making them pay hard and often. The Jaguars have a terrible offensive line, especially more so now that Beachum is out, so with QB Bortles under pressure, the Jaguars would be smart to move to a dink and dunk offense, but I don’t really think they’re built for that. Wide receivers Robinson and Hurns are both excellent but their strength really is the long-ball, and I like the Ravens’ chances of shutting this phase of the game out, especially with CB Smith and S Weddle patrolling the secondary. So QB Bortles won't have much time in the pocket to find his dynamic receivers downfield, and he also won't have much support from his rushing attack, as the Ravens can stop the run pretty well holding opponents to a stellar 2.7 YPC on the season so far.

The Ravens scored 23 straight points in the 2^nd half against the Browns last week and I expect similar here as the Jaguars aren’t much better defensively, there secondary has holes through injury and their pass rush is non-existent, the Ravens offensive line has protected QB Flacco well over the first two games and he should have enough time to hit his receivers for significant gains throughout the afternoon.

Now the Ravens are quite clearly the better team but the only thing that worries me is Baltimores running attack which is really poor, this will keep them from putting the Jags away late in the game and we could fall to a backdoor cover in garbage time, but I make this spread Ravens -6 so once more we’re getting massive line value and I’m looking at backing the Ravens -1.5 with Paddy Power who go an amazing 2.0 when the rest of the books are between 1.85 & 1.90.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

My Prices – Chargers 2.50 Colts 1.66

Vegas Line – Chargers +1.5

The Colts QB Luck couldn’t do anything against the Broncos last week, they destroyed him with a ridiculous amount of pressure; and for me the Colts offensive line is especially weak on the right side. The Chargers will put some heat on Luck, but not nearly as much as Denver applied. Luck, as a result, will have a chance to engineer some consistent drives. The Chargers, however, own a trio of very potent cornerbacks and they put the clamps on Jacksonville's aerial attack last week so it’s more than possible they could hinder Luck's receivers in this match.

For me the way to beat San Diego's is by ground and pound and generally just getting the ball to the running back, just like the Chiefs did with Spencer Ware in Week 1. The problem for the Colts is that RB Gore isn't nearly the same player he once was and I can’t see them having too much success there.

The Colts are a mess. They can't block, pressure the quarterback, stop the run or cover anyone and the Chargers QB Rivers torched the Jaguars last week so with all the injuries in Indy’s secondary (they lost 5 cornerbacks to injury against Denver) I can’t see who can slow Rivers down in this matchup. I also like the Chargers RB Gordon as he has emerged as one of the better young running backs in the league and he can trample a weak Indianapolis front seven into the ground.

I can see this being a ground based game and on that basis the over/under points total of 51 is set too high and I’m predicting a much lower scoring game myself, in fact my model reckons there will be 42 points in total so with such a discrepancy I’m backing under 51 points at 1.97 with Matchbook.

NFL Week Two

WEEK 2 – NFL

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

My Prices – Dolphins 3.20 Patriots 1.43

Vegas Line - Patriots -6.5

Miami were improving at the backend of last season and that seems to have continued after a solid showing against the Seahawks in week one, they really should of won but for some dropped passes and that’s no mean feat against one of the best defences in the league in a hostile environment in Seattle.

Dolphins QB Tannehill doesn’t really convince me but if he keeps things simple with a short passing attack his offensive line will hold up well as the Patriots have no outstanding pass rushers. With Miami’s WR Landry & WR Stills getting open on a regular basis against the stellar Seahawks secondary you’d like to think they can at least do the same to the Patriots.

I’m not too sure how the running game is going to work out as Miami RB Foster couldn’t get going against the Seahawks which is to be expected and the Patriots run defence got torched by one of the best RB in the league in Arizona’s Johnson, Foster for me is only ordinary and the Pats runs defence should hold up a little better unless it’s truly awful.

With the Patriots young QB Garoppolo possibly liable to make some mistakes in the pressure of his first ever divisional game and with a very questionable offensive line in front of him we see a huge mismatch as the Dolphins elite defenders Suh, Wake and Williams will look to absolutely destroy the Patriots extremely dodgy blocking unit, I guess we’ll find out what QB Garoppolo is really made of on Sunday morning.

So with Miami’s fierce pass rush and a young and inexperienced stand-in QB the Patriots will have to resort to dink and dunking and running the ball, which is no bad thing as we know the Patriots can scheme and win against anyone as they probably will here to be honest with you but I don’t think they can cover this spread, for me the Patriots and Dolphins are pretty close right now under current circumstances and giving 6.5 points is a lot to overcome when a very limited offense is battling a talented defence and on that basis I’m backing the Dolphins +6.5 at 1.98 with Marathon Bet.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

My Prices – Saints 2.65 Giants 1.60

Vegas Line - Giants -4.5

Last season when these two teams met in the Superdome they racked up 13 touchdowns between them in a 52-49 shootout. I don’t think that’s going to be the case this year, firstly the Saints aren’t nearly as effective outside the Superdome and the Giants have improved their defence, especially the pass rush where new signings DE Vernon & DT Harrison have improved the unit so for me they will be able to exploit the Saints questionable offensive line, I still think the Saints QB Brees will still engineer some scoring drives as he’s that good and they have capable receivers in Cooks & Snead but this won’t be the shootout the books are projecting.

The Giants like the Saints have a suspect offensive line and DE Jordan should be in QB Mannings face all afternoon as New York are very weak at the Tackle position. The Giants don’t have the greatest running game either although the Saints don’t have the best secondary, especially after their number one corner Breaux is done for the season, through the air the Giants could hurt the Saints and WR Beckham, Shepherd & Cruz could all have big afternoons if the line can protect QB Manning.

The line that caught my eye here is the total points and under 53.5 is my play, I can understand the inflated total after last season’s result as I mentioned at the start of the preview but these are two totally different teams to a year ago and they’re not going to rack up a ton of points again, the Giants should of scored more last week if they had a truly potent offence as the Cowboys defence was not healthy and missing some key players, they only managed 20 and would of lost the game if Dallas employed some better clock management and actually had receivers that could catch the ball. I’m backing under 53.5 points at 1.99 with Marathon.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

My Prices – Eagles 2.45 Bears 1.66

Vegas Line - Bears -3

The Eagles rookie QB and number one pick in the draft Wentz made an impressive debut last week but it was against the Browns and they couldn’t bring any sort of pressure on him at all and he had a clean pocket for most of the game, that won’t happen here in Chicago as the Bears have a stout front 7 who rush the QB well, they also limited the Texans rushing attack to small yards last week and Houston have a better ground game than the Eagles. The Bears do have some major issues at safety but I like their corners Porter and Fuller and they should be able to handle Philly’s unproven receiving group when Wentz has time to throw.

Bears QB Cutler was beaten up last week in Houston sacked 5 times and hit another 13 times but the Texans have an elite defence and that is not the case with the Eagles so he should get better protection here and more time in the pocket to find his talented receivers Jeffrey & White who match up well against Philly’s suspect cornerbacks. I would also expect RB Langford to have a better game than last week as he will be running against a defence that surrendered more than five yards per carry to the Browns.

The Bears are underrated and I make this line Chicago -5 so to get -3 is a gift, the Eagles are riding the hype behind the number 1 pick in the draft and his impressive debut but the Browns have possibly the worst defence in the NFL and he couldn’t really have asked for an easier first game. I think the Bears are better than the Eagles at this stage, they own a comparable defensive front seven and a more-experienced quarterback with better offensive play-makers, so on that basis I’m backing the Bears -3 with Betway at 1.91

NFL Week 1

WEEK 1 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

My Prices - Vikings 1.41 Titans 3.40

Vegas Line - Vikings -2.5

I like the Vikings here; despite the QB injury I still think they're easily a top-10 team, they have arguably the best defence in the NFL, a potent running game, some play-makers on offense, and a terrific coaching staff. I’m not sure the public has caught on how good this team can be, they really don’t have many weaknesses and considering they didn’t lose anyone worth mentioning over the off-season there’s no reason to think they will take a step back, you could even argue that the young group will improve again this season due to more experience under their belts.

The one thing the Titans do well defensively is rush the QB but the secondary has some glaring weaknesses so WR Diggs won't have much resistance from the defensive backs and the run defence looks to be only average at best so RB Peterson will be able to rip right through the Tennessee front.

The Titans made some changes to their offensive line this offseason but I don't think the blockers will be able to handle Minnesota's ferocious front seven and QB Mariota will be in for a rough afternoon, I can’t see new signing RB Murray finding many open lanes either as running into DT Floyd and DT Joseph will prove to be extremely difficult. For me the big factor in this match-up is the experience the Vikings’ defence has playing together and it should give them a big edge over a Tennessee offense that has fewer elite players and less experience together.

 It won't be pretty, but the Vikings should be able to do enough to put themselves in position to win this contest and I’m taking the Vikings -2.5 at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

My Prices - Bengals 2.04 Jets 1.96

Vegas Line - Bengals -2.5

The Bengals lost a lot of production this offseason on both sides of the ball, but the offense took the biggest hit losing two WR and an OT, can QB Dalton cope as I have a feeling he will regress this season and if he can’t continue to put up big numbers through the air then that will place a lot of emphasis on the running game where to be fair they have two decent RB in Hill & Bernard, trouble there is the Jets’ defensive front is stellar at stuffing the run though with the trio of DE Richardson, DE Wilkerson and DE Williams, although the first named is suspended for this match.

On defence the Bengals look to have an above average unit, possibly the best in the AFC North but they lost a couple of key players in their secondary, especially at the corner position, so the Jets may have some success throwing to talented receivers Decker & Marshall as they match up well here.

I’m a bit surprised by this spread of Jets +2.5. I do realise that the Bengals have put together five straight winning seasons (all resulting in Wild Card playoff losses), but being favourites in New York to a very solid team in the Jets is pushing it a bit. I make the spread Jets -0.5 so to get +2.5 is giving us 3 points of line value and on that basis I’m backing the Jets +2.5 at 1.99 with Matchbook.

Superbowl 50

Carolina Panthers V Denver Broncos

My Prices – Panthers 1.70 Broncos 2.44

Vegas Line – Panthers -5.5

Superbowl 50 is here and first of all we have to talk about the pitch, these are the total points of the two teams combined in all San Francisco’s home games this season 20-23-23-32-32-33-38-45 as you can see the over’s only cashed in once and it seems there are a lot of low scoring games so it must be something to do with conditions in the 49ers stadium so this is something we need to keep in mind when handicapping this contest.

As we look at the teams we see they both have excellent defences with Denver’s ranked 1^st being a class apart from even its closest rival in Carolina ranked 2^nd, on offence Carolina win hands down ranking 8^th on my numbers with Denver weighing in at 25^th partly due to veteran QB Manning being totally inept physically with his throwing arm totally gone. The other problem for Manning is pass protection – it’s not the worse by any means but it’s not very good either, the Panthers have the fifth-most sacks in the NFL (44) this season so they’ll be getting to the QB at some stage for sure, what Denver have to do in this scenario if they want to win the game is limit turnovers because if you give the ball to Cam Newton in your half of the field he will produce a scoring drive.

The only place the Panthers seem to be vulnerable defensively is their secondary due to injuries to both starting cornerbacks, Manning has weapons to throw to but he no longer has the arm strength to pull this off so the signs are not good for the Broncos passing game if the QB can only target his tight end and running back with short throws as the Panthers Kuechly and company will soon be in their faces. So the question is can they get anything going on the ground and establish the run with Anderson and Hillman, now there not the best runners in the league but they’re good enough to open up some holes and keep the ball moving in short yardage gains, if they can do this consistently it will protect Manning from the pass rush by making sack machines Addison and Short hesitate and look for runners, they have run the ball well between then so far in the play-offs so why can’t that continue here? FYI the Panthers finished with the league's sixth-best run defence so it’s not impregnable by any means. 

So how are the Panthers going to attack the best defence the league has seen since the Steelers legendary 2008 D, well QB Cam Newton has been a terror all season but he has never faced a defence of this quality in his career, the Denver pass rush is truly ferocious and will bring heavy heat to Newton, Carolina doesn’t have any receiving weapons of sufficient quality to trouble Denver’s elite secondary, Ginn and Funchess just won’t cut it in the backfield against Talib & Harris and the Broncos need to capitalise on this and try and force some turnovers through QB pressure and bad throws, also and this is very important as long as safeties Stewart and Ward are fit and healthy for Denver they will be able to shut down Carolina’s main weapon in tight end Olsen, who is improving rapidly and is almost Gronk-like in his production.

It seems the Panthers are going to have to run the ball then through Newton himself and Stewart which to be fair they have been doing very successfully all season long trouble is Denver lead the league in stuffing the run and opponents don’t get to far after contact so Newton needs to stay patient and not rush into bad throws when scrambling.

This is looking to me like it’s going to be a low scoring game on a bad pitch decided by whomever makes the least turnovers and with that in mind giving up 5.5 points to the best defence seen in years is way too much and I’m confidently backing Denver +5.5 at 1.95 with Ladbrokes, now I’m not saying Carolina won’t win because I think they have a very good chance of lifting the trophy but they won’t win by more than 5 points in what I think will be a close game.

 Enjoy the contest and I’ll see you next season.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

My Prices – Chiefs 2.90 Patriots 1.52

Vegas Line – Patriots – 4.5

The Patriots are getting healthier after being banged up or most of the season, WR Julian Edelman is now 100 percent and OT Sebastian Vollmer is listed as probable. Having both on the field will be huge for New England as will having LB Donta Hightower back. Vollmer will help protect Brady and the return of Hightower further boost’s the Patriots defence, while Edelman matches up very well with the Kansas City secondary. In my opinion the Patriots will to turn to a quick passing game to neutralize the pass rush and move the ball down field as I don't see them running the ball well at all(both main Running Backs are on injured reserve), so I expect Brady to fire the ball early and often. He will of course try to stretch the field a bit with TE Gronkowski and while the Chiefs are good at defending tight ends defending Gronk is another matter indeed.

I wouldn’t read too much into the Chiefs blowout of the Texans last week as the Texans QB Hoyer produced possibly the worst performance I’ve ever seen from a QB and the most important factor’s to take from the match are the win was handed to them on a plate and the Patriots don’t hand out wins, also the injuries that key Kansas players suffered during the contest will have a major impact here, both of the Chiefs' interior linemen have been ruled out of this game with concussion and WR Maclin is questionable after not practising this week. That's bad news for the Chiefs as it leaves them with just TE Travis Kelce as their only offensive weapon so the Patriots only need to concentrate on shutting him down to stop the Chiefs offence. So if QB Smith can't go to Kelce, how will he move the chains effectively? The New England defence registered the second-most sacks in the league during the regular season and will place heavy pressure on Smith.

With the returning players for New England and in my opinion the market over-rating Kansas due to their winning streak and blow out of the Texans we’re getting massive line value on the Patriots here and I’m taking -4 New England at 1.91 with Skybet.

WIldcard Weekend

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

My Prices – Chiefs 1.64 Texans 2.55

Vegas Line – Chiefs -3.5

The Texans began the season with a 2-5 record, their highly regarded defence was in tatters and their offence inept. Nobody really expected the offense to be good anyway but they were expected to have a dominant defence and by the end of Week 7 the Texans had given up an amazing 199 points. That’s around 28 points per game! In this time elite DE JJ Watt only managed six sacks which is very poor for a player of his undoubted calibre, all was not well in Houston.

From Week 8 onwards though JJ finally found his mojo, when he’s on fire he’s a sack machine, a destroyer of quarterbacks and teams actually change their game-plan to combat him, he’s basically unstoppable. Watt racked up 11.5 sacks in nine games which included two games where he was injured and his hand was in a cast, his presence was huge and since Week 8 the Texans defence has been one of the best units in the NFL. After giving up 28 points per game over the first seven weeks, the Texans have given up just 12 points per game since. That is a massive upturn in performance.

The Chiefs have won 10 in a row after starting the season 1-5. Their only victory in that time was over the Texans in Week 1. They then produced some strong offensive performances from weeks 8 to 13 where they averaged 34 points per game. However, over the last month they’ve reverted to the mean, averaging just 21 points per game.

This downturn is not good timing as the Texans are on the up and bring the 4^th best defence in the NFL to the table. That said, the Chiefs run the ball very, very well (ranked 1^st in my offensive run numbers) with running backs West and Ware so I would expect the Chiefs to have some success on the ground.
In passing situations though JJ Watt and the rest of the defensive front will be able to put immense pressure on QB Smith as the Texans pass rush is ranked 7^th against a 14^th ranked pass attack and this will undoubtedly result in sacks and scrambles. The Texans don’t have the greatest secondary but Kansas QB Smith is by no means capable of taking advantage of this so I wouldn’t expect too much out of the Chiefs aerial attack. Smith has also been sacked 45 times this year as well which is the second most of any quarterback in the league. JJ Watt will be licking his lips at the prospect of beating up the quarterback.

The Chiefs’ defence is also very stout and ranks just as highly as Houston’s D, they have a very good pass rush (ranked 5^th) add to that the return of both OL Justin Houston and OL Tamba Hali and they get a huge boost to the defensive line. While it’s not wise to rely on players returning to their best form in their first game back they will have an influence.

With that in mind, the Chiefs should be able to win in the trenches and QB Hoyer won’t have much time to find WR Hopkins who is one of the better WR in the NFL at the moment, he will also be taking on an excellent secondary and may have some trouble getting open, so the Texans will need to combat this by establishing the run early, but there could be problems there even though the Chiefs don’t stop the run well (ranked 11^th) as the Texans don’t have a strong ground attack themselves (ranked 26^th).

All in all nobody expected the Texans or the Chiefs to make it this far and both teams will feel that they can win this for sure, but for me if the Texans defence plays like we know it can they should be able to take advantage playing at home in a low scoring game as both quarterbacks will be under pressure from the start and both are extremely poor when in this situation, so the better pass rush will win the day.

I’m taking the home underdog and debatably the better defence here; as long as the Texans take care of the ball, avoid turnovers and don’t gift the Chiefs decent field position then I can’t see Kansas scoring many points so with that in mind I’m backing the Texans +3 in what should be a low scoring game at 2.06 with Matchbook.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

My Prices – Steelers 2.35 Bengals 1.94

Vegas Line – Steelers -3

By all accounts the Bengals number one QB Andy Dalton will be out another week which means AJ McCarron will be starting for the Bengals. So the question is can the Steelers get pressure on the backup QB? Looking at the stats the Bengals have been one of the best pass protecting teams in the league as they have only allowed 142 total pressures all season which weighs in at 3^rd on the rankings, so it seems McCarron will have time in the pocket to find his receivers and the figures show that when he’s not under pressure he completes 77% of his passes at 11 yards per attempt which is more than satisfactory as the Bengals definitely have the offensive weapons(ranked 7^th) in TE Eifert and WR Green to test the Steelers secondary (ranked 15^th). 

The Steelers defence is stout against the run though (ranked 5^th) so Bengals running backs Hill and Bernard could struggle but they have plenty of ability to grind out yards when needed. A strong ground game would tip the balance in the Bengals favour for sure and for me TE Eifert is the key to unlocking the Steelers defensive line as he can open up gaps for both backs to charge through.

Pittsburgh’s offence (ranked 2^nd) has been reaping destruction on whoever has crossed its path putting up at least 28 points per game on every team bar one for the last 9 weeks and this in my opinion has left them over-rated, I definitely have a few doubts that they can maintain this level, for one RB Williams is out and replacing his production will be very difficult as he finished the season with 907 yards and 11 touchdowns. Having to rely on 3^rd & 4^th string running backs in a play-off game against an 8^th ranked run defence is not a good look for Pittsburgh. The Bengals also have a fantastic pass rush with DE Dunlap and DT Atkins and they'll be able to generate plenty of pressure on QB Roethlisberger. Big Ben will no doubt lead the Steelers on a couple of scoring drives as he and receivers Brown & Bryant are just too good to contain but they can’t afford to be one-dimensional in their attack as that will play right into the hands of Cincinnati as no team defends the deep pass as well as the Bengals.

This line makes no sense at all it must be an over-reaction to the strength of the Steelers offence but for me Cincinnati are the more balanced team and they match up very well against this Steelers side both offensively and defensively. I also have the Bengals at -2 on my numbers so to be getting 3 points at home makes this a no brainer and I’m backing the Bengals +3 at 1.88 with Matchbook.

For Sundays games check out my blog on Saturday night/Sunday morning.