WIldcard Weekend

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

My Prices – Chiefs 1.64 Texans 2.55

Vegas Line – Chiefs -3.5

The Texans began the season with a 2-5 record, their highly regarded defence was in tatters and their offence inept. Nobody really expected the offense to be good anyway but they were expected to have a dominant defence and by the end of Week 7 the Texans had given up an amazing 199 points. That’s around 28 points per game! In this time elite DE JJ Watt only managed six sacks which is very poor for a player of his undoubted calibre, all was not well in Houston.

From Week 8 onwards though JJ finally found his mojo, when he’s on fire he’s a sack machine, a destroyer of quarterbacks and teams actually change their game-plan to combat him, he’s basically unstoppable. Watt racked up 11.5 sacks in nine games which included two games where he was injured and his hand was in a cast, his presence was huge and since Week 8 the Texans defence has been one of the best units in the NFL. After giving up 28 points per game over the first seven weeks, the Texans have given up just 12 points per game since. That is a massive upturn in performance.

The Chiefs have won 10 in a row after starting the season 1-5. Their only victory in that time was over the Texans in Week 1. They then produced some strong offensive performances from weeks 8 to 13 where they averaged 34 points per game. However, over the last month they’ve reverted to the mean, averaging just 21 points per game.

This downturn is not good timing as the Texans are on the up and bring the 4^th best defence in the NFL to the table. That said, the Chiefs run the ball very, very well (ranked 1^st in my offensive run numbers) with running backs West and Ware so I would expect the Chiefs to have some success on the ground.
In passing situations though JJ Watt and the rest of the defensive front will be able to put immense pressure on QB Smith as the Texans pass rush is ranked 7^th against a 14^th ranked pass attack and this will undoubtedly result in sacks and scrambles. The Texans don’t have the greatest secondary but Kansas QB Smith is by no means capable of taking advantage of this so I wouldn’t expect too much out of the Chiefs aerial attack. Smith has also been sacked 45 times this year as well which is the second most of any quarterback in the league. JJ Watt will be licking his lips at the prospect of beating up the quarterback.

The Chiefs’ defence is also very stout and ranks just as highly as Houston’s D, they have a very good pass rush (ranked 5^th) add to that the return of both OL Justin Houston and OL Tamba Hali and they get a huge boost to the defensive line. While it’s not wise to rely on players returning to their best form in their first game back they will have an influence.

With that in mind, the Chiefs should be able to win in the trenches and QB Hoyer won’t have much time to find WR Hopkins who is one of the better WR in the NFL at the moment, he will also be taking on an excellent secondary and may have some trouble getting open, so the Texans will need to combat this by establishing the run early, but there could be problems there even though the Chiefs don’t stop the run well (ranked 11^th) as the Texans don’t have a strong ground attack themselves (ranked 26^th).

All in all nobody expected the Texans or the Chiefs to make it this far and both teams will feel that they can win this for sure, but for me if the Texans defence plays like we know it can they should be able to take advantage playing at home in a low scoring game as both quarterbacks will be under pressure from the start and both are extremely poor when in this situation, so the better pass rush will win the day.

I’m taking the home underdog and debatably the better defence here; as long as the Texans take care of the ball, avoid turnovers and don’t gift the Chiefs decent field position then I can’t see Kansas scoring many points so with that in mind I’m backing the Texans +3 in what should be a low scoring game at 2.06 with Matchbook.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

My Prices – Steelers 2.35 Bengals 1.94

Vegas Line – Steelers -3

By all accounts the Bengals number one QB Andy Dalton will be out another week which means AJ McCarron will be starting for the Bengals. So the question is can the Steelers get pressure on the backup QB? Looking at the stats the Bengals have been one of the best pass protecting teams in the league as they have only allowed 142 total pressures all season which weighs in at 3^rd on the rankings, so it seems McCarron will have time in the pocket to find his receivers and the figures show that when he’s not under pressure he completes 77% of his passes at 11 yards per attempt which is more than satisfactory as the Bengals definitely have the offensive weapons(ranked 7^th) in TE Eifert and WR Green to test the Steelers secondary (ranked 15^th). 

The Steelers defence is stout against the run though (ranked 5^th) so Bengals running backs Hill and Bernard could struggle but they have plenty of ability to grind out yards when needed. A strong ground game would tip the balance in the Bengals favour for sure and for me TE Eifert is the key to unlocking the Steelers defensive line as he can open up gaps for both backs to charge through.

Pittsburgh’s offence (ranked 2^nd) has been reaping destruction on whoever has crossed its path putting up at least 28 points per game on every team bar one for the last 9 weeks and this in my opinion has left them over-rated, I definitely have a few doubts that they can maintain this level, for one RB Williams is out and replacing his production will be very difficult as he finished the season with 907 yards and 11 touchdowns. Having to rely on 3^rd & 4^th string running backs in a play-off game against an 8^th ranked run defence is not a good look for Pittsburgh. The Bengals also have a fantastic pass rush with DE Dunlap and DT Atkins and they'll be able to generate plenty of pressure on QB Roethlisberger. Big Ben will no doubt lead the Steelers on a couple of scoring drives as he and receivers Brown & Bryant are just too good to contain but they can’t afford to be one-dimensional in their attack as that will play right into the hands of Cincinnati as no team defends the deep pass as well as the Bengals.

This line makes no sense at all it must be an over-reaction to the strength of the Steelers offence but for me Cincinnati are the more balanced team and they match up very well against this Steelers side both offensively and defensively. I also have the Bengals at -2 on my numbers so to be getting 3 points at home makes this a no brainer and I’m backing the Bengals +3 at 1.88 with Matchbook.

For Sundays games check out my blog on Saturday night/Sunday morning.