Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Divisional Round

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

My Prices – Chiefs 2.90 Patriots 1.52

Vegas Line – Patriots – 4.5

The Patriots are getting healthier after being banged up or most of the season, WR Julian Edelman is now 100 percent and OT Sebastian Vollmer is listed as probable. Having both on the field will be huge for New England as will having LB Donta Hightower back. Vollmer will help protect Brady and the return of Hightower further boost’s the Patriots defence, while Edelman matches up very well with the Kansas City secondary. In my opinion the Patriots will to turn to a quick passing game to neutralize the pass rush and move the ball down field as I don't see them running the ball well at all(both main Running Backs are on injured reserve), so I expect Brady to fire the ball early and often. He will of course try to stretch the field a bit with TE Gronkowski and while the Chiefs are good at defending tight ends defending Gronk is another matter indeed.

I wouldn’t read too much into the Chiefs blowout of the Texans last week as the Texans QB Hoyer produced possibly the worst performance I’ve ever seen from a QB and the most important factor’s to take from the match are the win was handed to them on a plate and the Patriots don’t hand out wins, also the injuries that key Kansas players suffered during the contest will have a major impact here, both of the Chiefs' interior linemen have been ruled out of this game with concussion and WR Maclin is questionable after not practising this week. That's bad news for the Chiefs as it leaves them with just TE Travis Kelce as their only offensive weapon so the Patriots only need to concentrate on shutting him down to stop the Chiefs offence. So if QB Smith can't go to Kelce, how will he move the chains effectively? The New England defence registered the second-most sacks in the league during the regular season and will place heavy pressure on Smith.

With the returning players for New England and in my opinion the market over-rating Kansas due to their winning streak and blow out of the Texans we’re getting massive line value on the Patriots here and I’m taking -4 New England at 1.91 with Skybet.