Week Sixteen Preview

Not much this week and I can't see me having much until the play-offs as I tend to avoid the uncompetitive stuff. I was going to have the Cardinals -4 but their best defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is now out for the season and this will have a massive impact on how they play as he is one of the best at his position in the NFL.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

My Prices – Redskins 2.75 Eagles 1.56

Vegas Line – Eagles -3

This is a huge divisional game for both teams, the Redskins can clinch the NFC East title with a win and the Eagles need to win their last two matches to clinch a second division title in three years. If the Eagles lose to the Redskins here they would miss the playoffs altogether, so it’s safe to say both teams will throw everything they have at each other. 

Despite the blowout loss to the Cardinals on Sunday I thought the Eagles actually played pretty well as at the end of the 2^nd quarter they were 1 yard away from tying the game at 17-17 and for most of the contest QB Bradford was moving the chains effectively against a very good defence. 

With that in mind the Eagles should be able to move the chains here with ease as the Redskins have a very poor secondary (ranked 20^th) and a poor pass rush (only 29 sacks all season). Philly will be able to run effectively as well as only the porous Saints defence surrender more yards per carry on the ground than the Redskins.

So if the Eagles are going to be able to move the chains can the Redskins keep up?

QB Cousins has been excellent since Week 7 but his offensive line is beginning to creak and has given up 8 sacks over the last two games add to that the Eagles quality pass rush and the Redskins could be in trouble. Of course, the pass rush won't be much of an issue if the Eagles can't stop the run (Ranked 26^th), the positive here is the Redskins are 31^st on the ground in my offensive rankings and their main RB Jones is listed as injured with a hip contusion. WR Jackson needs to be covered though as he’s been in top form recently and if the Eagles can shut him down then they will stop Washington.

I can see this being a very tight edgy game with so much at stake and I’m coming down on the side of the Eagles with homefield advantage as the Redskins aren’t as convincing away as they are in Washington and even though they have put themselves in pole position to win the NFC East they need to achieve something they haven’t managed all season long - to put more than two wins together.

With all this in mind I think the pressure will be too much for the Redskins so I’m backing Philadelphia -3 at 1.98 with Matchbook to take the race for the NFC East into Week 17.

New England Patriots at New York Jets

My Prices – Patriots 1.72 Jets 2.40

Vegas Line – Patriots -3

The Jets have won their last four games and can make the playoffs if they win their last two and other results go their way. The Patriots need one more win to gain home-field advantage through to the Superbowl but are walking wounded at the moment with a thread-bare squad. Offensively all Patriots QB Brady has left to throw to here is TE Gronkowski.

That's not good at all for New England as the Jets are decent at defending Tight Ends and really do have a very good defence all over coming in at 5^th on my rankings. This is a very good match up for New York considering how depleted the Patriots are at the moment.

When these teams met in week 7 Jets QB Fitzpatrick went 22 of 39 for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns and there is absolutely no reason why he can’t do the same again against a considerably weaker Patriots side. Losing LB Hightower last week was a massive blow to the Patriots defence and the Jets can take advantage.

The Jets have everything to lose here while the Patriots are sitting pretty at 12-2, the trouble for New England is they keep losing players week after week and I’ll be willing to bet that the Patriots main priority will be to escape this game without any further injuries as more players down would seriously derail their Superbowl bid. Take the points and back the Jets +3 at 2.00 with Sportingbet.

Week Fifteen Preview

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

My Prices – Broncos 2.30 Steelers 1.76

Vegas Line – Steelers -6.5

During the past five weeks the Steelers have gone 4-1 and have been unstoppable, torching defences, averaging 390 passing yards and scoring 30 plus points in each match. They currently sit at 3^rd on my offensive rankings (5^th through the air and 2^nd on the ground). They have fantastic playmakers in QB Roethlisberger, RB Williams and WR’s Brown, Bryant & Wheaton.

Denver has the number one ranked defence (1^st against the pass & 3^rd against the run), they have held Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards, handed Tom Brady his first defeat of the season and lead the league in sacks with 44 so the Steelers offence won’t be getting things all their own way.

The Broncos offensive line continues to be a problem though and they will have trouble protecting Osweiler but the Denver QB can exploit Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary and move the chains through receivers Thomas & Saunders and TE Davis.

This has the makings of a great game with playoff implications for both teams and it looks to me the Steelers are giving away too many points as I make the line Steelers -3. I believe Pittsburgh is over-valued due to their win last week against a Bengals side missing its QB Dalton and star TE Eifert. We are getting huge value on Denver here and I’m taking the Broncos +6.5 at 2.02 with Matchbook.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers

My Prices – Bengals 1.47 49ers 3.20

Vegas Line – Bengals -5.5

Despite losing QB Dalton with a broken thumb the Bengals are the more talented team in this match-up and have a defence which should shut down the lowest-scoring offence in the league.

Back up QB McCarron steps up for the Bengals and he just has to be competent really to ensure victory as the 49ers defence is woeful, especially against the run (ranked 30^th), Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard must be licking their lips at the prospect of trampling over San Francisco’s non-existent run defence.

San Francisco QB Gabbert continues to play solid football despite his offensive line being unable to block, Cincinnati’s pass rush is top quality (ranked 7^th) so the 49ers QB is in for a rough evening and I can see him having trouble moving the chains.

The 49ers look finished for the season to me, they surrendered nine sacks last week and looked completely hopeless on both sides of the ball. The Bengals on the other hand need to keep on winning as the Steelers are breathing down their necks in the race for the AFC North title. The handicap line has been heavily bet up by the public and the original line was Bengals -4.5 so that’s what I’m taking at 1.91 with Totesport.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

My Prices – Cardinals 1.54 Eagles 2.90

Vegas Line – Cardinals -3.5

The Cardinals have an almost unstoppable pass attack with QB Palmer playing at a very high level and with so many weapons at his disposal they weigh-in at 2^nd in my offensive rankings. However if there's a strength to this inconsistent Eagles team it's the pass rush. The Eagles' defensive front dominated the trenches in last week's victory against the Bills and to have a chance here they need more of the same.

The Eagles have a serious problem with their secondary though and have struggled to cover receivers all season, with the Cardinals wide men Fitzgerald, Brown & Floyd all playing extremely well this is a very good match up for Arizona and they could rack up a lot of points.

On the other side of the ball the Cardinals only give up 19.4 points per game, the fourth lowest average in the NFL. They have a top 4 ranked defence which rushes the passer and stops the run very well. The Eagles don't have the best blocking or the best receivers so once again Arizona matches up very nicely.

I make the Cardinals -6 on my figures and can see them bouncing back from a stuttering effort last week and stopping the Eagles offence in its tracks while putting up some points themselves via their potent offence. I’m backing Arizona -3.5 at 2.02 with Matchbook.

Week Fourteen Preview

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Falcons 6.80 Panthers 1.18

Vegas Line – Panthers -8.5

Atlanta's defence is not very good; they rank 22^nd and 21^st against the pass and rush respectively. They also have the fewest sacks this season in the NFL, so Carolina will have all the time it needs to get its offence working. The Panthers have a top six rushing attack and Newton & Stewart will both have room to run as the Falcons have been extremely poor on the ground giving up 345 rushing yards over the past two weeks.

Because of their poor defence, the Falcons will have to turn it on offensively to compete with the Panthers, trouble is for the best part of the season their offence has been poor, ranking 24^th overall in my figures. Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan has regressed this year despite having one of the best receivers in the league in Julio Jones as a target, he has been particularly poor in the red-zone throwing numerous picks and he hasn’t shown he’s capable of doing anything against a stout defence.

The Falcons won't have much more success running the ball either as Carolina are very strong against the run, coming in at 3^rd in my rankings.

The Panthers are the better team with an average winning margin this year of 10.7 points and they could easily blowout the Falcons here as they match up very well. However despite all of their losing Atlanta hasn’t been beaten by more than 10 points all season, so with that in mind I’m buying a point and taking Carolina -7.5 at 1.92 with Matchbook.

Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears

My Prices – Redskins 2.50  Bears 1.66

Vegas Line – Bears -3.5

The Redskins were unbelievably poor offensively against the Cowboys last week, they just didn't know how to respond to the same blitz that Dallas brought over and over and over again, the reason for this ineptitude was a power outage and all there tablets went down on the sidelines. That might sound silly, but not having the ability to scheme against the opponent’s strategy and make adjustments in-play is a massive disadvantage.

Washington’s offence is at its best through the air and QB Cousins can keep the ball moving through Reed, Jackson and Garcon, they don’t run the ball very well at all which is a shame as the Bears run defence is non-existent.

Offensively the Bears run the ball very well and they have two terrific running backs in Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford who will keep the chains moving if inconsistent QB Cutler can’t manage to do that through the air. Washington's defence has improved as the season has moved along and this should be an interesting matchup.

When we get this close to the end of the season we can look at the motivational angle as it carries a lot of weight with divisional and playoff tussles going on and as it stands Chicago is out of the playoff picture with a 5-7 record. Losing to the 49ers last week ended their season so I don't see them putting maximum effort in here. Washington is in a four way divisional title battle and maximum effort is guaranteed.

Also when the Bears win it's never by a wide margin. This year has seen victories by 2, 1, 3, 24 (the Rams gave up and their offence are horrible) and 4. This game is between two evenly matched teams with possibly more desire coming out of Washington so with everything considered I’m taking the points and backing the Redskins +3.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

My Prices – Raiders 3.00 Broncos 1.50

Vegas Line – Broncos -7

The Broncos are hot right now but is their offence overrated? QB Osweiler has been an upgrade over Manning for sure but the Denver offence is still only averaging 5.7 yards per play which is a very average number. Throw into the mix all the injuries the Broncos are dealing with right now, 16 first team players were limited or didn’t practise at all this past week and that put’s question marks over a lot of key players.

They're also favoured by too much here considering that they've scored just 17 points in two of Osweiler's three starts and in my opinion with the current injury situation Denver’s not offensively potent enough to cover the 7 point margin.

Like the Broncos, the Raiders will have issues scoring. Denver's defence is elite level and it should be able to limit Oakland, saying that though if Pro Bowl centre Rodney Hudson play’s(Oakland have gone 1-3 since he was injured) then he will protect QB Carr against Denver's ferocious pass rush and that will give him time to connect with his receivers. 

The Raiders are much better than their 5-7 record shows, especially if they get their Pro Bowl centre back. They should have beaten the Chiefs last week and had they done so they wouldn't be favoured by a touchdown here. They may not win in Denver but I reckon they’ll keep it close so I’m backing Oakland +7 at 1.91 with Sportingbet.

Week Thirteen Preview

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

My Prices – Texans 2.40 Bills 1.70

Vegas Line – Bills -3

The Texans defence has really stepped up since their humiliation at Miami in week eight and over the last four games they have limited their opponents to 6,6,17 & 6 points respectively. The reason for this improvement is because of the pressure they are putting opposing offensive lines under; they are dominating in the trenches leading the league by forcing a negative play every 8 snaps and JJ Watt with 13.5 sacks and 29 hits is showing why he is the best defensive player in the NFL.

The Bills won’t be able to establish their ground game either as the Texans have only given up an average of 59.3 rushing yards per game since that embarrassing loss in Miami.

Buffalo QB Taylor is a player I rate and he can keep the chains moving and put up some points but he is going to be under immense pressure here from the Texans pass rush and will be lucky to escape this game unhurt.

Now there weren’t too many good things to say about the Texans offence through their first eight games, they had serious problems moving the ball to say the least but the last two weeks have seen a dramatic improvement as they have rushed for over 100 yards in each match. The Bills ground defence comes in at 30th in my defensive rankings, this is a good match up for Houston, add in WR DeAndre Hopkins and Houston bring some weapons to the table.

So to recap, the improving Texans defence should be able to stop the Bills' offence; Buffalo's defence is dropping down the rankings and slowly getting worse due to injuries just as Houston’s offence is beginning to click. Take the Texans +3 at 2.13 with Matchbook.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

My Prices – Broncos 1.35 Chargers 3.90

Vegas Line – Broncos -3.5

The Broncos haven't been able to run the ball all year and then they go and serve up 175 rushing yards in the victory over the Patriots. C.J. Anderson had his best game of the season, rushing for 113 yards and two touchdowns so you have to feel for San Diego here as they can’t stop the run at all ranking 32nd in my defensive rankings, this could get ugly.

The Broncos offence has got better week on week after Manning went down injured, Osweiler has been an upgrade at QB and he fits the Denver system well. The Chargers rank 28th against the pass and really are a poor defensive unit all round. The Broncos will be able to move the chains with ease.

The Chargers had a bit of an offensive renaissance last week, however, that was against a terrible Jaguars defence, this week there facing the number one defence in the NFL. Denver’s pass rush is top-notch add to that the possible return of DE DeMarcus Ware and this will spell trouble for QB Rivers and his battered offensive line.

San Diego don’t run the ball well either coming in at 26th in my rankings, I can’t see how they’re going to move the chains without Rivers throwing caution to the wind and trying to take on Denver’s top ranked secondary.

I make the spread Broncos -7 and think the books are reading too much into the Chargers torching of the Jaguars last week, we’re getting 3.5 points of line value here so I’m looking at backing Denver at -4 with Matchbook at 2.05.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

My Prices – Colts 2.50 Steelers 1.66

Vegas Line – Steelers -7

Indianapolis despite injuries have been on a decent run of late and have kept their playoff hopes alive by winning their last three games, the team’s defence has dramatically stepped up its level of play during this winning streak and are trending upwards in my defensive rankings(currently 15th).

Veteran QB Hasselbeck will once again start for the Colts and he can produce another strong performance, Pittsburgh's secondary is poor ranking 19th against the pass and Indy have solid options including receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. They will move the chains effectively against the Steelers.

Due to injuries Indianapolis have no running game this will prove to be a blessing here as Pittsburgh’s run defence is ranked 9th.

Steelers QB Roethlisberger should be able to slice through the Colts who need their pass rush to be effective as Pittsburgh’s offence is top 3 and realistically they should have too many weapons for the Colts secondary to handle.

This game could end up turning into a high scoring shootout and this season the Colts have proved that their at their best when they’ve let the passing attack take over, on the other hand the Steelers at home are strong and should be too much of an obstacle to overcome for Indy?

I make this spread Steelers-3 so once again we are getting line value, the Steelers will win in my opinion but the books have the numbers way off. I can see the Colts covering the spread in an entertaining game so back the Colts +7 at 1.94 with Matchbook.