Week Thirteen Preview

Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills

My Prices – Texans 2.40 Bills 1.70

Vegas Line – Bills -3

The Texans defence has really stepped up since their humiliation at Miami in week eight and over the last four games they have limited their opponents to 6,6,17 & 6 points respectively. The reason for this improvement is because of the pressure they are putting opposing offensive lines under; they are dominating in the trenches leading the league by forcing a negative play every 8 snaps and JJ Watt with 13.5 sacks and 29 hits is showing why he is the best defensive player in the NFL.

The Bills won’t be able to establish their ground game either as the Texans have only given up an average of 59.3 rushing yards per game since that embarrassing loss in Miami.

Buffalo QB Taylor is a player I rate and he can keep the chains moving and put up some points but he is going to be under immense pressure here from the Texans pass rush and will be lucky to escape this game unhurt.

Now there weren’t too many good things to say about the Texans offence through their first eight games, they had serious problems moving the ball to say the least but the last two weeks have seen a dramatic improvement as they have rushed for over 100 yards in each match. The Bills ground defence comes in at 30th in my defensive rankings, this is a good match up for Houston, add in WR DeAndre Hopkins and Houston bring some weapons to the table.

So to recap, the improving Texans defence should be able to stop the Bills' offence; Buffalo's defence is dropping down the rankings and slowly getting worse due to injuries just as Houston’s offence is beginning to click. Take the Texans +3 at 2.13 with Matchbook.

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers

My Prices – Broncos 1.35 Chargers 3.90

Vegas Line – Broncos -3.5

The Broncos haven't been able to run the ball all year and then they go and serve up 175 rushing yards in the victory over the Patriots. C.J. Anderson had his best game of the season, rushing for 113 yards and two touchdowns so you have to feel for San Diego here as they can’t stop the run at all ranking 32nd in my defensive rankings, this could get ugly.

The Broncos offence has got better week on week after Manning went down injured, Osweiler has been an upgrade at QB and he fits the Denver system well. The Chargers rank 28th against the pass and really are a poor defensive unit all round. The Broncos will be able to move the chains with ease.

The Chargers had a bit of an offensive renaissance last week, however, that was against a terrible Jaguars defence, this week there facing the number one defence in the NFL. Denver’s pass rush is top-notch add to that the possible return of DE DeMarcus Ware and this will spell trouble for QB Rivers and his battered offensive line.

San Diego don’t run the ball well either coming in at 26th in my rankings, I can’t see how they’re going to move the chains without Rivers throwing caution to the wind and trying to take on Denver’s top ranked secondary.

I make the spread Broncos -7 and think the books are reading too much into the Chargers torching of the Jaguars last week, we’re getting 3.5 points of line value here so I’m looking at backing Denver at -4 with Matchbook at 2.05.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

My Prices – Colts 2.50 Steelers 1.66

Vegas Line – Steelers -7

Indianapolis despite injuries have been on a decent run of late and have kept their playoff hopes alive by winning their last three games, the team’s defence has dramatically stepped up its level of play during this winning streak and are trending upwards in my defensive rankings(currently 15th).

Veteran QB Hasselbeck will once again start for the Colts and he can produce another strong performance, Pittsburgh's secondary is poor ranking 19th against the pass and Indy have solid options including receivers T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. They will move the chains effectively against the Steelers.

Due to injuries Indianapolis have no running game this will prove to be a blessing here as Pittsburgh’s run defence is ranked 9th.

Steelers QB Roethlisberger should be able to slice through the Colts who need their pass rush to be effective as Pittsburgh’s offence is top 3 and realistically they should have too many weapons for the Colts secondary to handle.

This game could end up turning into a high scoring shootout and this season the Colts have proved that their at their best when they’ve let the passing attack take over, on the other hand the Steelers at home are strong and should be too much of an obstacle to overcome for Indy?

I make this spread Steelers-3 so once again we are getting line value, the Steelers will win in my opinion but the books have the numbers way off. I can see the Colts covering the spread in an entertaining game so back the Colts +7 at 1.94 with Matchbook.