Week Twelve Preview

This week the books seem to have most of the lines correct so there's not a lot of opportunities, a week to keep the powder dry so to speak.

St Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals

My Prices – Rams 5.60 Bengals 1.22

Vegas Line - Bengals -8

The Rams’ offence is awful. They are averaging 17.9 points per game, the second lowest in the league, and 24.3 yards per drive, the lowest in the league. Their plan to ground and pound rookie running back Todd Gurley looked promising at one stage of the season but teams quickly caught on that they weren’t going to be beaten through the air (their bottom of my Offensive rankings with the pass). The Bengals defence is one of the better ones in the league, ranking 10^th & 12^th against the pass and run, that will be good enough to shut down the Rams’ one dimensional attack.

The Bengals offensive line hasn't been as good the past three games, giving up 10 sacks and that could spell trouble against the Rams as they rush the passer better than most teams in the NFL(ranked 3^rd).  St. Louis has the rare ability to hurt offenses with interior pressure, just as the Bengals do. It’s only a good thing then that the Cincinnati offensive line practices against that pressure each week.

Will Dalton struggle to keep the chains moving when under pressure is the question then and to be fair most quarterbacks do struggle under pressure but Dalton seems to be affected by it more than other decent QB’s.   In my opinion the best way for Cincinnati to keep moving the ball against a quality defence is with tight end Tyler Eifert. If we look at St Louis’ last two games we see in Week 10 Chicago tight ends caught eight passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns then in Week 11 Baltimore tight ends produced eight catches for 121 yards.

This is a big game for Cincinnati, the Steelers are breathing down their necks as the divisional race enters the final stretch, they can’t afford to drop another game and I’m looking at the Bengals bouncing back here after two defeats with a strong performance, defensively St. Louis will play a solid game but Cincinnati will eventually break free and outscore the Rams inept offence. Back the Bengals -8 at 2.00 with Matchbook.