Thursday, 26 November 2015

Thursday Night Football - Thanksgiving Day



Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

My Prices – Panthers 1.54 Cowboys 2.95

Vegas Line - Cowboys -1.5

The Cowboys won last week for the first time in seven games, the reason, QB Tony Romo, he has returned from injury and provided a major upgrade, trouble is the rest of the team are still as bad as their record shows. 

Dallas' offensive line was rock solid last year but it hasn't been the same in 2015, Carolina's front will dominate and get to Romo, meanwhile WR Bryant will struggle to get open against an elite Panthers secondary. The Panthers also defend the run very well so I can’t see the Cowboys having much success on the ground either. This Panthers defence is the real deal, only just behind Denver on my rankings and way ahead of the rest of the NFL.

The Panthers' like to run the ball with Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. The Cowboys rank 25th in run defence and this is a bad matchup against the 5th ranked ground & pound Carolina offense.
The Dallas pass rush is middle of the road(18th in my Rankings) but they can get to the QB if fired up, Carolinas offensive line blocks well though and could quite easily neutralise this threat.

Now, Carolina is the heaviest backed team of the day receiving 72% of all bets so why is the spread Panthers +1.5 and who is backing the Cowboys? It seems to me that Vegas are giving Romo’s return too much weight; I make this spread Carolina -2.5 and once again we are getting line value on an unbeaten side.

I’m not going to have a large wager but I’m taking Carolina +1.5 at 1.95 with Matchbook as they have done nothing wrong this season, match up well here and this line is way out. Be aware though of possible shenanigans from the Ref’s favouring Dallas as for the life of me I can’t work out why an unbeaten team is receiving points on the road to a team with a losing record.




The other two matches don’t really interest me from a handicap betting perspective and I normally don’t look at or bet the O/U, but I like the UNDER with the total set at 46 in the Eagles/Lions, both defences match up well against the respective offences and I can see a low scoring match with both teams cancelling each other out. I’m backing the under with Coral at 1.95

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