Week Eleven Previews

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Redskins 7.00 Panthers 1.16

Vegas Line – Panthers -7

Washington are going to struggle here, the injuries they have on the offensive line will be too much to overcome against the Panthers  as they have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL and their receivers won't be able to get open against Carolina's 2^nd rated secondary either.

The Panthers offence should be able to move the chains with ease as the Redskins have a 20^th ranked run defence going up against Carolina’s 5^th ranked ground attack and the Panthers will get Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton running early.

All in all the Redskins match up very poorly with the Panthers and I make this spread -12.5,  I don’t understand what Vegas has against the Panthers as they are playing as good as any team in the league right now and week after week the spread seems to be out so once again I’m backing Carolina with confidence. Take the Panthers -7 at 1.91 with Coral.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons 

My Prices – Colts 2.38 Falcons 1.72

Vegas Line – Falcons -6

Colts QB Luck is out with a lacerated kidney so forty year old backup QB Hasselbeck will make his third start of the season, he wasn’t bad in his previous two games but it should be noted that he was playing against the Jaguars and the Texans, neither of whom have competitive defences. The Falcons do a few things well on defence like stopping the run(ranked 16^th) but there secondary is poor(ranked 23^rd) and they rank last in the NFL in getting to the QB with only 10 sacks in 10 games, Hasselbeck will have time to find his receivers.

The Colts’ run defence is a serious issue as they’ve just lost their best run defender for the season so the Falcons 10^th ranked run attack should be able to move the chains effectively through Devonta Freeman. 

The Falcons aerial attack has been slipping down the rankings since week 5, I guess teams worked out their only threat was Julio Jones,  the Colts though have struggled to get to the quarterback throughout the season owning just 13 sacks so QB Ryan will have time to find his main man.

I can’t understand what the Falcons have done over the last 10 games to be favoured by 6 against anyone, so far this year they’ve made hard work of a very easy schedule and as a team they look to be regressing. All in all I can see this ending up a low-scoring game between two average sides and a six-point spread is too high to cover. Take Indianapolis +6 at 1.83 with Matchbook.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears 

My Prices – Broncos 1.52 Bears 3.00

Vegas Line – Broncos -1

Peyton Manning, the legendary Denver QB has finally been benched and this by default will improve the team, his constant poor performances through the first ten games showed him to be a shadow of his former self and the Broncos defence really carried the team to a 7-0 start. Now add to that defence the return of key cornerback Aqib Talib who comes back in after a suspension for poking an opponent in the eye means the Broncos match up very well against the Bears and in my opinion they should be -5, we are getting massive value here.

Denver’s defence is currently performing at a very, very high level and I fear for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, he will be picked off numerous times if he tries to take on the Broncos top ranked secondary so they will need to run the ball to have any success, Denver’s run defence is ranked 6^th and the Bears squad only have pedestrian running backs, it does not bode well for Chi-town.

Throw into the mix the poor state of Chicago’s defence and there’s no way they’ll be able to stop a Denver team with its back against the wall after two straight losses. I’m backing Denver -1 at 2.00 with Matchbook.

I'll be back with a post tomorrow looking at the Bengals/Cardinals match-up. 
  

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

My Prices – Bengals 2.50 Cardinals 1.66

Vegas Line – Cardinals -4.5

This spread has overreaction written all over it. Before last week, the advanced line on this game was Cardinals -3; I actually make it Cardinals -2.5. But because of what happened in Week 10, with the Cardinals handling the Seahawks on the road, and the Bengals unable to beat the lowly Texans, this line has moved in favour of the Cardinals. These teams are almost even in my opinion so once again we’re getting line value here.

The Cardinals stand a great chance of winning this game. The Bengals have a talented secondary and a strong pass rush (ranked 9^th in my defensive rankings), but it's hard to have an answer for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. There's just too much weaponry there and there pass attack is 2^nd in my offensive rankings. 

The Bengals have weapons of their own in Dalton, Bernard & Green with their aerial attack topping my offensive rankings and I can see them going toe to toe with the Cardinals through the air.

So in my opinion this boils down to which team can move the ball the best on the ground. Both offensive lines have been fantastic, paving the way for their respective running backs, Giovani Bernard has arguably outperformed Chris Johnson this season and I like the Bengals chances of moving the football on the ground more than the Cards, especially if Cardinals left guard Mike Iupati is out.

I’m siding with the points and the Bengals here even though I think the Cards will prevail, giving 4.5 points is too much between two closely matched teams. Take Cincinnati +4.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook.