Week Twelve Preview

This week the books seem to have most of the lines correct so there's not a lot of opportunities, a week to keep the powder dry so to speak.

St Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals

My Prices – Rams 5.60 Bengals 1.22

Vegas Line - Bengals -8

The Rams’ offence is awful. They are averaging 17.9 points per game, the second lowest in the league, and 24.3 yards per drive, the lowest in the league. Their plan to ground and pound rookie running back Todd Gurley looked promising at one stage of the season but teams quickly caught on that they weren’t going to be beaten through the air (their bottom of my Offensive rankings with the pass). The Bengals defence is one of the better ones in the league, ranking 10^th & 12^th against the pass and run, that will be good enough to shut down the Rams’ one dimensional attack.

The Bengals offensive line hasn't been as good the past three games, giving up 10 sacks and that could spell trouble against the Rams as they rush the passer better than most teams in the NFL(ranked 3^rd).  St. Louis has the rare ability to hurt offenses with interior pressure, just as the Bengals do. It’s only a good thing then that the Cincinnati offensive line practices against that pressure each week.

Will Dalton struggle to keep the chains moving when under pressure is the question then and to be fair most quarterbacks do struggle under pressure but Dalton seems to be affected by it more than other decent QB’s.   In my opinion the best way for Cincinnati to keep moving the ball against a quality defence is with tight end Tyler Eifert. If we look at St Louis’ last two games we see in Week 10 Chicago tight ends caught eight passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns then in Week 11 Baltimore tight ends produced eight catches for 121 yards.

This is a big game for Cincinnati, the Steelers are breathing down their necks as the divisional race enters the final stretch, they can’t afford to drop another game and I’m looking at the Bengals bouncing back here after two defeats with a strong performance, defensively St. Louis will play a solid game but Cincinnati will eventually break free and outscore the Rams inept offence. Back the Bengals -8 at 2.00 with Matchbook.

Thursday Night Football - Thanksgiving Day

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys

My Prices – Panthers 1.54 Cowboys 2.95

Vegas Line - Cowboys -1.5

The Cowboys won last week for the first time in seven games, the reason, QB Tony Romo, he has returned from injury and provided a major upgrade, trouble is the rest of the team are still as bad as their record shows. 

Dallas' offensive line was rock solid last year but it hasn't been the same in 2015, Carolina's front will dominate and get to Romo, meanwhile WR Bryant will struggle to get open against an elite Panthers secondary. The Panthers also defend the run very well so I can’t see the Cowboys having much success on the ground either. This Panthers defence is the real deal, only just behind Denver on my rankings and way ahead of the rest of the NFL.

The Panthers' like to run the ball with Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart. The Cowboys rank 25th in run defence and this is a bad matchup against the 5^th ranked ground & pound Carolina offense.

The Dallas pass rush is middle of the road(18^th in my Rankings) but they can get to the QB if fired up, Carolinas offensive line blocks well though and could quite easily neutralise this threat.

Now, Carolina is the heaviest backed team of the day receiving 72% of all bets so why is the spread Panthers +1.5 and who is backing the Cowboys? It seems to me that Vegas are giving Romo’s return too much weight; I make this spread Carolina -2.5 and once again we are getting line value on an unbeaten side.

I’m not going to have a large wager but I’m taking Carolina +1.5 at 1.95 with Matchbook as they have done nothing wrong this season, match up well here and this line is way out. Be aware though of possible shenanigans from the Ref’s favouring Dallas as for the life of me I can’t work out why an unbeaten team is receiving points on the road to a team with a losing record.

The other two matches don’t really interest me from a handicap betting perspective and I normally don’t look at or bet the O/U, but I like the UNDER with the total set at 46 in the Eagles/Lions, both defences match up well against the respective offences and I can see a low scoring match with both teams cancelling each other out. I’m backing the under with Coral at 1.95

Week Eleven Previews

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Redskins 7.00 Panthers 1.16

Vegas Line – Panthers -7

Washington are going to struggle here, the injuries they have on the offensive line will be too much to overcome against the Panthers  as they have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL and their receivers won't be able to get open against Carolina's 2^nd rated secondary either.

The Panthers offence should be able to move the chains with ease as the Redskins have a 20^th ranked run defence going up against Carolina’s 5^th ranked ground attack and the Panthers will get Jonathan Stewart and Cam Newton running early.

All in all the Redskins match up very poorly with the Panthers and I make this spread -12.5,  I don’t understand what Vegas has against the Panthers as they are playing as good as any team in the league right now and week after week the spread seems to be out so once again I’m backing Carolina with confidence. Take the Panthers -7 at 1.91 with Coral.

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons 

My Prices – Colts 2.38 Falcons 1.72

Vegas Line – Falcons -6

Colts QB Luck is out with a lacerated kidney so forty year old backup QB Hasselbeck will make his third start of the season, he wasn’t bad in his previous two games but it should be noted that he was playing against the Jaguars and the Texans, neither of whom have competitive defences. The Falcons do a few things well on defence like stopping the run(ranked 16^th) but there secondary is poor(ranked 23^rd) and they rank last in the NFL in getting to the QB with only 10 sacks in 10 games, Hasselbeck will have time to find his receivers.

The Colts’ run defence is a serious issue as they’ve just lost their best run defender for the season so the Falcons 10^th ranked run attack should be able to move the chains effectively through Devonta Freeman. 

The Falcons aerial attack has been slipping down the rankings since week 5, I guess teams worked out their only threat was Julio Jones,  the Colts though have struggled to get to the quarterback throughout the season owning just 13 sacks so QB Ryan will have time to find his main man.

I can’t understand what the Falcons have done over the last 10 games to be favoured by 6 against anyone, so far this year they’ve made hard work of a very easy schedule and as a team they look to be regressing. All in all I can see this ending up a low-scoring game between two average sides and a six-point spread is too high to cover. Take Indianapolis +6 at 1.83 with Matchbook.

Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears 

My Prices – Broncos 1.52 Bears 3.00

Vegas Line – Broncos -1

Peyton Manning, the legendary Denver QB has finally been benched and this by default will improve the team, his constant poor performances through the first ten games showed him to be a shadow of his former self and the Broncos defence really carried the team to a 7-0 start. Now add to that defence the return of key cornerback Aqib Talib who comes back in after a suspension for poking an opponent in the eye means the Broncos match up very well against the Bears and in my opinion they should be -5, we are getting massive value here.

Denver’s defence is currently performing at a very, very high level and I fear for the Bears QB Jay Cutler, he will be picked off numerous times if he tries to take on the Broncos top ranked secondary so they will need to run the ball to have any success, Denver’s run defence is ranked 6^th and the Bears squad only have pedestrian running backs, it does not bode well for Chi-town.

Throw into the mix the poor state of Chicago’s defence and there’s no way they’ll be able to stop a Denver team with its back against the wall after two straight losses. I’m backing Denver -1 at 2.00 with Matchbook.

I'll be back with a post tomorrow looking at the Bengals/Cardinals match-up. 
  

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals

My Prices – Bengals 2.50 Cardinals 1.66

Vegas Line – Cardinals -4.5

This spread has overreaction written all over it. Before last week, the advanced line on this game was Cardinals -3; I actually make it Cardinals -2.5. But because of what happened in Week 10, with the Cardinals handling the Seahawks on the road, and the Bengals unable to beat the lowly Texans, this line has moved in favour of the Cardinals. These teams are almost even in my opinion so once again we’re getting line value here.

The Cardinals stand a great chance of winning this game. The Bengals have a talented secondary and a strong pass rush (ranked 9^th in my defensive rankings), but it's hard to have an answer for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Michael Floyd. There's just too much weaponry there and there pass attack is 2^nd in my offensive rankings. 

The Bengals have weapons of their own in Dalton, Bernard & Green with their aerial attack topping my offensive rankings and I can see them going toe to toe with the Cardinals through the air.

So in my opinion this boils down to which team can move the ball the best on the ground. Both offensive lines have been fantastic, paving the way for their respective running backs, Giovani Bernard has arguably outperformed Chris Johnson this season and I like the Bengals chances of moving the football on the ground more than the Cards, especially if Cardinals left guard Mike Iupati is out.

I’m siding with the points and the Bengals here even though I think the Cards will prevail, giving 4.5 points is too much between two closely matched teams. Take Cincinnati +4.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook.

 

Week Ten Previews

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans

My Prices – Panthers 1.54 Titans 2.85

Vegas Line – Panthers – 4.5

The unbeaten Panthers looked unstoppable at times last week against the Packers and they match up very well here against the Titans with the 5^th ranked ground attack going up against the 23^rd ranked ground defence. To their credit the Titans defence do stop the pass and get to the opposing QB very well but Carolina’s offensive line is strong and QB Cam Newton very agile rushing for 343 yards so far this season, add to that the good form of RB Jonathan Stewart and they will be able to move the chains with ease on the ground.

Titans’ rookie QB Mariota is going to have a rough afternoon against the number 2 ranked defence in my rankings, the Panthers have the best defence Tennessee will have faced so far this season and with the Titans offense coming in at 28^th and 26^th through the air and on the ground respectively the Panthers should be able to deal with them with ease.

It seems to me the Panthers are still being underrated by the books and the odds of 2.00 for Carolina -4.5 on Matchbook are a steal. 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens

My Prices – Jaguars 2.85 Ravens 1.54

Vegas Line – Ravens – 5.5

The Ravens are having a miserable season and their reputation as a top-tier defence is all but gone. The Jaguars have had some success offensively this season, as young QB Bortles has improved and receivers Robinson (40 catches, 707 yards, 6 TDs) and Hurns (36 catches, 635 yards, 6 TDs) have been in superb form. Baltimore rank 28^th against the pass in my defensive rankings, they have not forced a turnover in their last five games and have given up an average of 28 points per game since losing Pro Bowl linebacker Terrell Suggs to injury. It’s safe to say this is a very favourable match up for the Jaguars.

Baltimore QB Flacco will as well have every opportunity to connect with his receivers as the Jaguars are every bit as bad as their hosts against the pass ranking 29^th, trouble is the Ravens offense really has no one capable at that position without Steve Smith who is now out for the season.

With both teams defence’s stout against the run this could turn into a bit of a shootout and even though Jacksonville haven’t won a game on the road since 2013 they are an improved team and have been getting closer to that elusive road victory, there last three road games have been decided by seven points or less.

I can see Baltimore winning in the end as the Jaguars often shoot themselves in the foot, but not by more than 5 points so I’m taking the 1.94 with Matchbook on the Jaguars +5.5

New England Patriots @ New York Giants

My Prices – Patriots 1.41 Giants 3.50 

Vegas Line – Patriots -7

The Patriots even though they're dealing with a number of injuries look to match up well against a Giants defence that constantly leaves gaping holes in coverage, if that defensive ineptitude continues here and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t as they have given up an average of 315 passing yards per game this season Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will pick them apart. 

The Giants main attack is through the air with Manning targeting Beckham Jnr & Randle who have 96 catches for 1,523 yards and 10 touchdowns between them so far this season and these two need to continue to have an impact as the Patriots secondary has performed well this year grading 8^th in my rankings against the pass so the receivers may not get much separation.

All in all the Patriots will drive down the field with ease as the Giants defence is awful and this will leave Eli Manning with the task of matching Brady score-for-score which he may do for a few quarters but New England will pull away to win by a touchdown.

I’m backing the Patriots -7 at 1.91 with Coral or Skybet.