Week Three Previews

Pittsburgh Steelers @ St Louis Rams

 

My Prices – Steelers 2.06 Rams 1.94

Vegas Line - Steelers -1

The Rams have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. Aaron Donald is emerging as the best defensive tackle in the league and it's fair to say Pittsburgh are going to struggle protecting the quarter-back as the Rams will look to exploit the absence of four times Pro-Bowl centre Marukice Pouncey.

The Steelers offense do get a major weapon back though as Le'Veon Bell suits up after his two-game suspension, he is one of the top runners in the league. Add in a top quality QB in Roethlisberger and a decent WR like Antonio Brown and you have a very potent offence that will score points.

Pittsburgh are poor defensively and have numerous liabilities, particularly at linebacker and if Ryan Shazier is out and he’s been listed as missing practice all week then that will leave a massive hole in the secondary  meaning there liable to surrender big gains.

The Rams’ need to attack the weakest part of the Steelers’ team, which is their secondary and they need their receivers to produce here which I believe they will do as the Rams are traditionally strong at home and the Steelers may have one eye on their short week and BIG match against divisional rivals Baltimore on Thursday night.

St. Louis didn't show up to play last week at Washington after their emotional win in overtime against the Seahawks in Week 1. The Steelers crushed the 49ers at home and the public in my opinion have over-reacted massively to those two results. The Rams were -2.5 before Sunday's games and now they're +1. What I see an obvious let-down loss at Washington and a dominant Pittsburgh victory against a 49ers team playing in an early game off a short week.

It also seems Pittsburgh as a road favourite has an awful record. They're 16-29 against the spread over the past ten years when giving away points on the road, and it's even worse after a victory. They're 8-21 ATS in such situations.

 Back St Louis on the money line at 2.00 with Matchbook.

  

There’s not a lot else that really appeals this weekend betting wise in the NFL as there’s too many what if’s or games between poor teams that you can’t really trust with your cash so it’s really a case of watching and making notes of teams strengths & weaknesses.

I liked the Colts -3 as Indy always seem to take care of divisional opponents but there seems to be a lot of infighting between head coach and front office due to the lack of protection Andrew Luck receives from his offensive line, now Luck is more than capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them to victory but I need to see it first before I lay some cash on the line.

I took a second look at the match up between the Browns and the Raiders, with the Browns -3.5 looking appealing as the Raiders are travelling cross country for an early start which is a massive hindrance and with the Browns defence looking much improved it was tempting but can you really trust the Browns? Not for me.

One line that does interest me though is in the Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys game.

Both teams are 2-0 after coming back to defeat the Giants in the 4^th Quarter and then beating an Eagles squad that has not looked good in any way shape or form.

Currently there is a massive difference between these two sides due to the injury situation in Dallas, especially the QB and WR tandem; give me Matt Ryan and Julio Jones any day of the week over Brandon Weeden and Terrance Williams.

The Falcons are much improved defensively under rookie coach Dan Quinn and this has all the hallmarks of a low scoring sloppy game with both teams trying to preserve their 100% record, the only way Dallas can give themselves a chance to do that is to put a lid on Atlanta.

With that in mind under 45 points is the bet at 1.91 with Totesport.

 

Thursday Night Football - Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants

 

My Prices – Redskins 2.55 Giants 1.64

Vegas Line - Giants -3

This divisional game could have huge implications on the direction both these teams take this season, the Redskins had been written off before a ball had been thrown but have put up two decent displays to go 1-1, the Giants however have thrown two victories away in the 4^th Quarter with a catalogue of errors and are currently 0-2. 

The Vegas handicap line has been cut from -4 to -3 Giants so despite 70% of public money going on New York the men in the desert are moving the spread towards Washington.

The Redskins Running Backs look useful and there defence has improved massively, especially against the run. The Giants have no pass rush at all and are very weak against the pass but there defence look’s to be top 5 against the run as they held Dallas to 80yds rushing in Week 1 and Atlanta to about 56 on Sunday. The Redskins strength on offence is the run game.

 In the first two games the fourth quarter has been a disaster for New York with delay of game penalties, bad play-calls, fumbles in the red zone and dropped passes are they losing focus late in games? It’s something to watch for tonight as we could get a big swing in the 4^th Quarter.

Also pay attention to who suits up for the Giants. The short week will cause some injured players to miss the game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is definitely out with a concussion and Robert Ayers, Victor Cruz and Ereck Flowers were all listed as missing practice earlier in the week. DRC, Ayers and Flowers could be huge losses for the Giants’ hopes. 

The key to success in my opinion for the Giants is to get Odell Beckham Jr. involved in the game more, he tore Atlanta apart in the first half but for some reason wasn’t targeted by Manning in the 2^nd half this needs to change here for the Giants to come away with the win.

I’m not going to advise a handicap bet as I can see a topsy-turvy match with both sides leading at some point so I’m going to stay up and trade the match live, opposing Washington if the price is viable and they are leading early doors, then green up when the Giants strike back. If New York leads early and Washington keep getting stuffed on the run, I’ll wait until the 4^th Quarter before entering to see if the Giants continue to shoot themselves in the foot and throw away another winning position.

Results And A Look At The Jets at The Colts

Hi guys, we had a poor Sunday going 3-3 with our picks, Buffalo especially disappointed as they constantly shot themselves in the foot by giving away penalty after penalty. We made a loss of 50p on the day to £10 level stakes so no damage really done there and we live to fight another day.

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

My Prices – Jets 3.40 Colts 1.43

Vegas Line – Colts -7

As the Colts' lost in Week 1 and the Jets' won, this spread has dropped from -9.5 to -7, this is huge value in my opinion as Indy will not struggle at home like they did last week in Buffalo. There QB Luck has a tremendous record of 13-1 when coming off a loss and I expect the Colts to bounce back here despite the Jets strong defensive line.

The biggest question for the Jets is the status of Chris Ivory. The running back was listed as questionable this week with a groin injury and cornerback Antonio Cromartie is also listed as questionable, with a knee injury, if these players are out the Jets will miss their production, especially Ivory’s as the Colts have a poor run defence.

The Colts seem to play their best whenever they need to bounce back though and the Jets despite their 31-10 victory in Week 1 will be overcome here in Indianapolis as the Colts are a serious upgrade on the Browns and they won’t be handed victory by an inept QB like last week.

I’ve took some 2.14 on Colts-7 with Matchbook

Week Two Previews

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
 

My Prices - Texans 2.40 Panthers 1.72

 

Vegas Line – Panthers -3

The biggest concern for me here is the Panthers offense managed only 263 yards against Jacksonville, yes they scored 20 points but struggled to move the chains for most of the match.

Carolina has major issues on its offensive line, and I can't imagine it having success blocking J.J. Watt and Jade Clowney. 

Also the Panthers don’t know whether linebacker Luke Kuechly will pass the concussion protocol, he is there best defender and a quality player, if he misses this then the Panthers will really have to step up.

The Texans, despite their Week 1 loss are a much better side than Jacksonville but the Texans' QB situation is embarrassing, last week two of the Chiefs' TDs came on short fields after turnovers in the Texans' own red zone, they are starting a new QB this match and the offense here needs to sustain drives.

There are just too many improbable factors here so I’m giving this one a miss.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
 

My Prices – Buccaneers 4.60 Saints 1.28

Vegas Line – Saints -10

How bad was the number 1 draft pick Jameis Winston in the opening game? In fact we shouldn’t single him out as it looked like the whole team neglected their duties and collectively went missing in action this to me suggests a mental problem or dissatisfaction with their coaching staff. In a nutshell Tampa has to play a lot better all-round to stand a chance in the Superdome. 

Drew Brees put up 350+ yards last week but the team couldn’t finish off drives and they managed only one touchdown in four red-zone trips, the Saints had similar problems last season and I need to see this being addressed before they become a viable betting proposition.

There's no way I'm backing the Buccaneers after how poor they were last week and I don't want to lay  +10 with the Saints either at least not until they prove they can blow out a poor team. No bet.

 San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
 

My Prices – 49ers 3.00 Steelers 1.49

Vegas Line – Steelers -6

The Steelers have one of the worst defences in the NFL; I was amazed at how inept they were against the Patriots in week 1 as they didn’t even know how to line-up properly, let’s hope after 10 days off they have sorted out this most basic of problems.  If the Steelers contain the 49ers running attack they boost their chances of winning tremendously as their offence will score as the 49ers have little defence outside of Bowman & Bethea. Pittsburgh will move the chains effectively on most drives.

The 49ers played a late Monday night game, and now they have to travel across the country to play on Sunday at 10 a.m and that’s not a good look. Having said that, I don't feel safe advising the Steelers to cover, as their defensive ineptitude definitely opens up the strong possibility of the 49ers keeping it close if they can improve their passing game. This is another game to watch in my opinion to see if the Steelers are really that bad on defence.

 Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
 

My Prices – Lions 2.30 Vikings 1.76

Vegas Line – Vikings -2.5

The Vikings failed to produce anything Monday night against the 49ers there QB was sacked five times and he struggled to sustain drives, truth be told It’s hard to find any positives in Minnesota’s Week 1 performance, the offence put up just three points while going 1-for-9 on third downs and the defence allowed 230 rushing yards I do expect them to bounce back here at home as their way better than they showed on Monday but they have to try and work out how to stop the run.

The Lions offence looked unstoppable for half the match against San Diego in week 1 taking a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, then the QB Stafford got hit so hard he couldn’t feel his fingers for the rest of the match and their offence collapsed. Stafford's status for this match is unknown. He expects to play, but at what capacity? Will he be the same quarterback who torched San Diego early on or the one who looked scared witless by the end of the match?

I’m going to give this match a miss as we don’t know the condition of the Detroit QB and we’d be relying on an assumption that the Vikings are going to bounce back.

 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
 

My Prices – Patriots 2.05 Bills 1.95

Vegas Line – Patriots -1

This spread of Patriots -1 is very wrong, it stinks and in my opinion is a trap set by Vegas for the casual bettor. Let me explain, last Sunday night the Las Vegas Hilton posted its advance point spread for the Week 2 games, the starting line was Patriots -2.5. As of this post Vegas has seen 78% of bets taken on this match go on the Patriots so you’d think the line would get bigger as Vegas raised the point spread as liabilities increased, New England are clearly being bet by the public. Surprisingly the line has fallen to Patriots -1; it seems to me the casino’s want people to bet the Patriots while they back the Bills.

Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus returns for the Bills and makes an already elite defence even more formidable, I don’t anticipate the Patriots offensive line to open up many holes for the running backs and I don't trust Brady's pass protection to hold up either.

The Patriots did not impress in Week 1 at all, their defence gave up over 450 yards at home and the Steelers really let them off the hook by not taking their scoring opportunities.

If the Patriots dig in this match could turn into a defensive struggle, and in my pre-season preview I noted that the Bills were a competent QB away from being a contender as their defence was so good, well Taylor looked the part in Week 1 going 14-of-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown, with that production and the more dominant defence Buffalo are a strong pick here and I’m confidently taking the 1.99 with Matchbook.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
 

My Prices – Cardinals 1.82 Bears 2.25

Vegas Line – Cardinals -2

In Week 1 the Bears offence had a hard time finishing drives and their QB Cutler was taking some heavy sacks, meanwhile the Bears defence didn't sack Rodgers once. On the few occasions the Bears did generate a pass rush, Rodgers skipped out of the pocket and ran six times for 36 yards, with this in mind it's difficult to see the Bears being able to stop Arizona's passing attack and Carson Palmer should be able to hit John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald with ease.

This looks a good opening for us to invest in the -2 Arizona available at 2.04 with Matchbook.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
 

My Prices – Titans 1.88 Browns 2.12

Vegas Line – Titans -1.5

The line opened -4 Cleveland and has been backed all the way into Tennessee -1.5 which is a huge move and Vegas have a massive liability on a Titans win.

The Titans offence looked good last week but the Tampa Bay defence is that bad it will make you look good so this is a totally different test for this young team. The Browns run defence is the worst in the NFL so Bishop Sankey could have a massive game for Tennessee if they keep the ball on the ground.

Johnny Manziel will start at quarterback for the Browns and he is awful, he handed the Jets victory last week on a plate but I’m afraid the value in the line has gone and I’ll be sitting this one out.

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
 

My Prices – Chargers 2.38 Bengals 1.62

Vegas Line – Bengals -3

With both teams coming off a victory in Week 1 this looks an even contest but I see the Bengals coming out on top.

Even though the Chargers were impressive in coming back and beating the Lions last week they struggled against the run and Hill and Bernard could be the difference here for the Bengals who have a strong offensive line with plenty of weapons at running back and receiver. 

San Diego has its own offensive weapons but they will miss guard DJ Fluker on the line and this is where Cincinnati will hurt them as Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap will be gunning for Rivers.

The Bengals are formidable at home but I’m going to wait for the price to move to where I want it or no bet, so if we can get 1.95 to 2.05 I’ll take Cincinnati -3 all day long.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
 

My Prices – Rams 1.72 Redskins 2.28

Vegas Line – Rams -3.5

The Redskins defence surprisingly looked competent in Week 1 and I expect them to put pressure on the quarterback here making it hard for St.Louis to move the chains as their offensive line looked shaky against Seattle and their receivers poor, where the Rams offence excel though is running the ball but prospective star running back Todd Gurley and Tre Mason are listed as questionable for this match.

The Redskins' offensive line doesn't block very well and the Rams have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL so it’s difficult to see how Washington’s going to score in this match.

This has all the hallmarks of a Washington win with the Rams coming off a big victory and a possible letdown, there on the road and the public have backed the Rams heavily as Vegas has seen 93% of bets land on St.Louis. I try not to get to involved with the really bad teams as they can blowout just as easily as they can win, so no wager for me but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
 

My Prices – Falcons 2.24 Giants 1.76

Vegas Line – Giants -2.5

This is a good match up for Atlanta as their offensive weakness is pass protection and the Giants have no pass rush, due to this the Falcons will move the ball well with Matt Ryan supplying the unstoppable Julio Jones.

The Giants should move the chains frequently as their approach is geared towards extended drives but they will need to protect the ball well and they don’t have the strongest offensive line as Atlanta’s new look high octane defence and pass rush looks improved this season.

This match all boils down to whose offence can run at the highest level for the longest and I think the new look Falcons defence will cause enough carnage to allow them to cover the spread here in New York. Back the Falcons +2.5 at 2.02 with Unibet.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders

My Prices – Ravens 1.42 Raiders 3.40

Vegas Line – Ravens -6

Oakland were terrible in Week 1, really poor, the Ravens coming off the back of a loss should take this in their stride as their by far the superior team, earlier in the week we could have got -4 on Baltimore but now it’s -6 it’s a non-play for me.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Dolphins 1.40 Jaguars 3.60

Vegas Line – Dolphins -5.5

The Dolphins entered the season with high expectations but struggled disposing with Washington last week and that hurt them so it wouldn’t surprise me here to see Miami turn it on as the Jaguars are an extremely incompetent team. They have no pass rush and the secondary struggle to cover the most basic of plays.

On Offense the Jags look just as weak as they can’t block and there QB Bortles is in for a beating unless he can get his feet moving quickly. The only ray of hope is to establish a running game but Miami have enough quality to stamp that out.

I’m taking Miami to cover -5.5 at 1.98 with Matchbook.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

My Prices – Cowboys 2.80 Eagles 1.56

Vegas Line – Eagles -5

The Eagles struggled in the first half of the Monday night game against Atlanta but caught fire after halftime. Their superior conditioning was there for all to see as the Falcons players all looked dead on their feet. The question is can they carry that 2^nd half performance over to this game?

The Cowboys have some injury worries coming into this as Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy are out until Week 5, this will weaken there run defence, also Orlando Scandrick is still out and this will hurt their secondary. But the most prominent injury for the Cowboys is to Dez Bryant, who will be out 8-12 weeks and their offence will not be as potent.

I can't say I was too impressed by what I saw from Philadelphia's defence Monday night. A couple of players performed to a high level, but on the whole the team struggled to generate any sort of pass rush.  Dallas has the best offensive line in the NFL. Tony Romo will have all afternoon to throw, so he'll be able to hit his lesser receivers here.

To sum up Philadelphia have a solid squad, but not great. Its defence is terrible, and the Cowboys will be fine because they'll still be able to move the ball effectively, so this will be a close game and +5 Dallas looks the way to go, take the 1.89 available with Matchbook.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

My Prices – Seahawks 2.50 Packers 1.66

Vegas Line – Packers -3.5

The Packers finally get a shot at the Seahawks at Lambeau Field after three straight losses in Seattle, add to that the Seahawks looked very pedestrian against the Rams in Week 1 and you’d think that the Packers will move the chains with ease all evening and have a great chance of handing the Seahawks a beating. 

Seattle have a poor offensive line this is true but Green Bay’s run defence is equally as bad so the Seahawks will have to  pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch to succeed here. Establishing Lynch is crucial and he should have great success against a Packer defence that can’t stop the run. This is a huge mis-match as Lynch is a beast and I expect Seattle to bounce back here with a strong effort.

The Packers are traditionally strong at home but I can see Seattle covering here, they may not win but they should get within 3 points. Back Seattle +3.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook