Week Two Previews

Houston Texans @ Carolina Panthers
 

My Prices - Texans 2.40 Panthers 1.72

 

Vegas Line – Panthers -3

The biggest concern for me here is the Panthers offense managed only 263 yards against Jacksonville, yes they scored 20 points but struggled to move the chains for most of the match.

Carolina has major issues on its offensive line, and I can't imagine it having success blocking J.J. Watt and Jade Clowney. 

Also the Panthers don’t know whether linebacker Luke Kuechly will pass the concussion protocol, he is there best defender and a quality player, if he misses this then the Panthers will really have to step up.

The Texans, despite their Week 1 loss are a much better side than Jacksonville but the Texans' QB situation is embarrassing, last week two of the Chiefs' TDs came on short fields after turnovers in the Texans' own red zone, they are starting a new QB this match and the offense here needs to sustain drives.

There are just too many improbable factors here so I’m giving this one a miss.

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
 

My Prices – Buccaneers 4.60 Saints 1.28

Vegas Line – Saints -10

How bad was the number 1 draft pick Jameis Winston in the opening game? In fact we shouldn’t single him out as it looked like the whole team neglected their duties and collectively went missing in action this to me suggests a mental problem or dissatisfaction with their coaching staff. In a nutshell Tampa has to play a lot better all-round to stand a chance in the Superdome. 

Drew Brees put up 350+ yards last week but the team couldn’t finish off drives and they managed only one touchdown in four red-zone trips, the Saints had similar problems last season and I need to see this being addressed before they become a viable betting proposition.

There's no way I'm backing the Buccaneers after how poor they were last week and I don't want to lay  +10 with the Saints either at least not until they prove they can blow out a poor team. No bet.

 San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
 

My Prices – 49ers 3.00 Steelers 1.49

Vegas Line – Steelers -6

The Steelers have one of the worst defences in the NFL; I was amazed at how inept they were against the Patriots in week 1 as they didn’t even know how to line-up properly, let’s hope after 10 days off they have sorted out this most basic of problems.  If the Steelers contain the 49ers running attack they boost their chances of winning tremendously as their offence will score as the 49ers have little defence outside of Bowman & Bethea. Pittsburgh will move the chains effectively on most drives.

The 49ers played a late Monday night game, and now they have to travel across the country to play on Sunday at 10 a.m and that’s not a good look. Having said that, I don't feel safe advising the Steelers to cover, as their defensive ineptitude definitely opens up the strong possibility of the 49ers keeping it close if they can improve their passing game. This is another game to watch in my opinion to see if the Steelers are really that bad on defence.

 Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
 

My Prices – Lions 2.30 Vikings 1.76

Vegas Line – Vikings -2.5

The Vikings failed to produce anything Monday night against the 49ers there QB was sacked five times and he struggled to sustain drives, truth be told It’s hard to find any positives in Minnesota’s Week 1 performance, the offence put up just three points while going 1-for-9 on third downs and the defence allowed 230 rushing yards I do expect them to bounce back here at home as their way better than they showed on Monday but they have to try and work out how to stop the run.

The Lions offence looked unstoppable for half the match against San Diego in week 1 taking a 21-0 lead midway through the second quarter, then the QB Stafford got hit so hard he couldn’t feel his fingers for the rest of the match and their offence collapsed. Stafford's status for this match is unknown. He expects to play, but at what capacity? Will he be the same quarterback who torched San Diego early on or the one who looked scared witless by the end of the match?

I’m going to give this match a miss as we don’t know the condition of the Detroit QB and we’d be relying on an assumption that the Vikings are going to bounce back.

 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
 

My Prices – Patriots 2.05 Bills 1.95

Vegas Line – Patriots -1

This spread of Patriots -1 is very wrong, it stinks and in my opinion is a trap set by Vegas for the casual bettor. Let me explain, last Sunday night the Las Vegas Hilton posted its advance point spread for the Week 2 games, the starting line was Patriots -2.5. As of this post Vegas has seen 78% of bets taken on this match go on the Patriots so you’d think the line would get bigger as Vegas raised the point spread as liabilities increased, New England are clearly being bet by the public. Surprisingly the line has fallen to Patriots -1; it seems to me the casino’s want people to bet the Patriots while they back the Bills.

Pro-Bowl defensive tackle Marcell Dareus returns for the Bills and makes an already elite defence even more formidable, I don’t anticipate the Patriots offensive line to open up many holes for the running backs and I don't trust Brady's pass protection to hold up either.

The Patriots did not impress in Week 1 at all, their defence gave up over 450 yards at home and the Steelers really let them off the hook by not taking their scoring opportunities.

If the Patriots dig in this match could turn into a defensive struggle, and in my pre-season preview I noted that the Bills were a competent QB away from being a contender as their defence was so good, well Taylor looked the part in Week 1 going 14-of-19 for 195 yards and a touchdown, with that production and the more dominant defence Buffalo are a strong pick here and I’m confidently taking the 1.99 with Matchbook.

Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears
 

My Prices – Cardinals 1.82 Bears 2.25

Vegas Line – Cardinals -2

In Week 1 the Bears offence had a hard time finishing drives and their QB Cutler was taking some heavy sacks, meanwhile the Bears defence didn't sack Rodgers once. On the few occasions the Bears did generate a pass rush, Rodgers skipped out of the pocket and ran six times for 36 yards, with this in mind it's difficult to see the Bears being able to stop Arizona's passing attack and Carson Palmer should be able to hit John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald with ease.

This looks a good opening for us to invest in the -2 Arizona available at 2.04 with Matchbook.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns
 

My Prices – Titans 1.88 Browns 2.12

Vegas Line – Titans -1.5

The line opened -4 Cleveland and has been backed all the way into Tennessee -1.5 which is a huge move and Vegas have a massive liability on a Titans win.

The Titans offence looked good last week but the Tampa Bay defence is that bad it will make you look good so this is a totally different test for this young team. The Browns run defence is the worst in the NFL so Bishop Sankey could have a massive game for Tennessee if they keep the ball on the ground.

Johnny Manziel will start at quarterback for the Browns and he is awful, he handed the Jets victory last week on a plate but I’m afraid the value in the line has gone and I’ll be sitting this one out.

San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
 

My Prices – Chargers 2.38 Bengals 1.62

Vegas Line – Bengals -3

With both teams coming off a victory in Week 1 this looks an even contest but I see the Bengals coming out on top.

Even though the Chargers were impressive in coming back and beating the Lions last week they struggled against the run and Hill and Bernard could be the difference here for the Bengals who have a strong offensive line with plenty of weapons at running back and receiver. 

San Diego has its own offensive weapons but they will miss guard DJ Fluker on the line and this is where Cincinnati will hurt them as Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap will be gunning for Rivers.

The Bengals are formidable at home but I’m going to wait for the price to move to where I want it or no bet, so if we can get 1.95 to 2.05 I’ll take Cincinnati -3 all day long.

St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins
 

My Prices – Rams 1.72 Redskins 2.28

Vegas Line – Rams -3.5

The Redskins defence surprisingly looked competent in Week 1 and I expect them to put pressure on the quarterback here making it hard for St.Louis to move the chains as their offensive line looked shaky against Seattle and their receivers poor, where the Rams offence excel though is running the ball but prospective star running back Todd Gurley and Tre Mason are listed as questionable for this match.

The Redskins' offensive line doesn't block very well and the Rams have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL so it’s difficult to see how Washington’s going to score in this match.

This has all the hallmarks of a Washington win with the Rams coming off a big victory and a possible letdown, there on the road and the public have backed the Rams heavily as Vegas has seen 93% of bets land on St.Louis. I try not to get to involved with the really bad teams as they can blowout just as easily as they can win, so no wager for me but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Redskins cover the spread.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
 

My Prices – Falcons 2.24 Giants 1.76

Vegas Line – Giants -2.5

This is a good match up for Atlanta as their offensive weakness is pass protection and the Giants have no pass rush, due to this the Falcons will move the ball well with Matt Ryan supplying the unstoppable Julio Jones.

The Giants should move the chains frequently as their approach is geared towards extended drives but they will need to protect the ball well and they don’t have the strongest offensive line as Atlanta’s new look high octane defence and pass rush looks improved this season.

This match all boils down to whose offence can run at the highest level for the longest and I think the new look Falcons defence will cause enough carnage to allow them to cover the spread here in New York. Back the Falcons +2.5 at 2.02 with Unibet.

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders

My Prices – Ravens 1.42 Raiders 3.40

Vegas Line – Ravens -6

Oakland were terrible in Week 1, really poor, the Ravens coming off the back of a loss should take this in their stride as their by far the superior team, earlier in the week we could have got -4 on Baltimore but now it’s -6 it’s a non-play for me.

Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Dolphins 1.40 Jaguars 3.60

Vegas Line – Dolphins -5.5

The Dolphins entered the season with high expectations but struggled disposing with Washington last week and that hurt them so it wouldn’t surprise me here to see Miami turn it on as the Jaguars are an extremely incompetent team. They have no pass rush and the secondary struggle to cover the most basic of plays.

On Offense the Jags look just as weak as they can’t block and there QB Bortles is in for a beating unless he can get his feet moving quickly. The only ray of hope is to establish a running game but Miami have enough quality to stamp that out.

I’m taking Miami to cover -5.5 at 1.98 with Matchbook.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

My Prices – Cowboys 2.80 Eagles 1.56

Vegas Line – Eagles -5

The Eagles struggled in the first half of the Monday night game against Atlanta but caught fire after halftime. Their superior conditioning was there for all to see as the Falcons players all looked dead on their feet. The question is can they carry that 2^nd half performance over to this game?

The Cowboys have some injury worries coming into this as Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy are out until Week 5, this will weaken there run defence, also Orlando Scandrick is still out and this will hurt their secondary. But the most prominent injury for the Cowboys is to Dez Bryant, who will be out 8-12 weeks and their offence will not be as potent.

I can't say I was too impressed by what I saw from Philadelphia's defence Monday night. A couple of players performed to a high level, but on the whole the team struggled to generate any sort of pass rush.  Dallas has the best offensive line in the NFL. Tony Romo will have all afternoon to throw, so he'll be able to hit his lesser receivers here.

To sum up Philadelphia have a solid squad, but not great. Its defence is terrible, and the Cowboys will be fine because they'll still be able to move the ball effectively, so this will be a close game and +5 Dallas looks the way to go, take the 1.89 available with Matchbook.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

My Prices – Seahawks 2.50 Packers 1.66

Vegas Line – Packers -3.5

The Packers finally get a shot at the Seahawks at Lambeau Field after three straight losses in Seattle, add to that the Seahawks looked very pedestrian against the Rams in Week 1 and you’d think that the Packers will move the chains with ease all evening and have a great chance of handing the Seahawks a beating. 

Seattle have a poor offensive line this is true but Green Bay’s run defence is equally as bad so the Seahawks will have to  pound the ball with Marshawn Lynch to succeed here. Establishing Lynch is crucial and he should have great success against a Packer defence that can’t stop the run. This is a huge mis-match as Lynch is a beast and I expect Seattle to bounce back here with a strong effort.

The Packers are traditionally strong at home but I can see Seattle covering here, they may not win but they should get within 3 points. Back Seattle +3.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook