Week Eight Previews

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

My Prices – Buccaneers 3.80 Falcons 1.29

Vegas Line – Falcons -7

Tampa's secondary really is awful and Falcons QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones could go to town here in the Georgia Dome, the Buccaneers rank 29^th against the pass in my Defensive rankings and with Jones back to full fitness now we could get another blowout in the dome as Tampa Bay has really struggled in the red zone giving up far too many easy touchdown passes, that will kill them here facing top quality receivers.

The Falcons RB Devonta Freeman doesn't have as good of a matchup unfortunately as the Buccaneers rank 9^th against the run and they have limited their previous three opponents to an average of 50 yards. 

Buccaneers rookie QB Winston looked good last week against the Redskins but the Atlanta defence is a lot stouter than Washington’s so this will be a different test. Tampa have a pair of decent RB in Doug Martin and Charles Sims to call upon but the Falcons have surrendered 80 or more yards on the ground to just one opponent in seven games.

Because of injuries to Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy the Bucs are short at receiver this week so Tampa’s only legitimate threat Mike Evans will be well covered.

Tampa doesn’t have the weapons to hurt Atlanta on the road and like last year Atlanta will be looking at blowing out there divisional rivals.

I like Atlanta at home against a weak team with injuries and I’m backing the Falcons -7 @ 1.95 with Coral

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

My Prices – Seahawks 1.40 Cowboys 3.10

Vegas Line – Seahawks – 5.5

Despite blowing out the 49ers the Seahawks offensive line gave up five sacks to a defence that didn't register a single sack in the previous two games, in fact the 49ers are propping up the table in my defensive ratings. SO the question is if Seattle couldn't protect against the 49ers’ how will they cope with the Dallas pass rush? 

The good thing is they will be able to run the ball through Lynch and to a certain extent Wilson as the Cowboys run defence has been very poor this year.

Dallas RB Darren McFadden looked good last week, but I don’t think he’ll find as much room to run against the Seahawks this will force the Cowboys QB Cassel to step up. 

The Cowboys would've won last week had Cassel not made some very questionable throws and the Seahawks fabled secondary will be looking forward to this match up.

I can see both offences struggling here in what should be a low-scoring game. The Cowboys will dominate the trenches but Seattle will pull off the victory.... just, so with that in mind I’m going to buy half a point to keep the push on our side and take Dallas +6 at 1.87 with Sportingbet.

Check back tomorrow morning and I will have a couple of other games previewed,  I wanted to wait for a few things to settle before advising any other bets.

Thursday Night Football - Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

 

My Prices – Dolphins 4.10 Patriots 1.32

Vegas Line – Patriots -8

Tom Brady’s deflate-gate revenge tour has hit the ground running and he has been awesome over the course of the first six games carrying the team to a 6-0 start and playing some of the best football in his career.

As for the Dolphins, they are on a two-game winning streak in which they beat up a couple of poor AFC South teams by a combined 46 points. However this is a completely different test and the Dolphins will have their work cut out against the Patriots; historically they have struggled against them on the road losing their last six games at Gillette Stadium.

The Patriots offensive line has been poor lately surrendering too many sacks and things aren't likelier to get much easier here with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake waiting to attack the QB.

Dolphins RB Lamar Miller has been on fire over the last two games as both a runner and receiver, Miller is a dangerous weapon who is more than capable of helping Miami control the clock and the Patriots have a poor run defence ranking 21^st in my Defensive rankings so he could have another decent outing here.

The trouble is the Dolphins cannot convert 3rd Downs, they are last in the league at just 29% on the season and even in the win last week they were 1 out of 9 on 3rd Down.

And, they are banged up in the secondary with Grimes and McCain listed with knee injuries.

Not converting 3rd downs and having key player's missing from your secondary is not ideal when facing New England, they also have a poor run defence ranked 19th in my rankings so LeGarrette Blount and/or Dion Lewis could go well on the ground.

Also travelling to Gillette Stadium on a short week is a difficult task for any team, this makes the Patriots solid favourites by default, so to stay competitive Miami need to avoid turnovers, get maximum effort from Miller and Landry on offence and get Suh and Wake destroying the Patriots offensive line.

Does that sound familiar to Sundays Jets blueprint to conquer the Patriots? The problem for Miami is that New York had a much better team to execute that game plan and while the Jets did give the Patriots their toughest challenge of the season, New England won anyway. Now Miami have played better under a new coach, but that momentum will only last so long, they still have the same players and I need to see how they respond when they are in a competitive environment.

It all points to the Patriots to me and I’m taking New England -8 at 1.98 with Matchbook.

Week Seven Previews

Cleveland Browns @ St Louis Rams

My Prices – Browns 2.93 Rams 1.52

Vegas Line – Rams -6.5

The Rams rookie Todd Gurley might just be the best running back in the NFL right now. In his two full games, he has rushed for 146 and 159 yards against the Cardinals and Packers. Cleveland have the 31^st ranked run defence on my defensive rankings, he will go over 100 yards again and I don’t see how the Browns can stop him.

The Browns' offensive line will have its hands full with the Rams' pass rush making life extremely difficult for QB McCown and unlike the Rams, Cleveland doesn't have any ground attack to compensate. 

The Browns have struggled to finish games this year and look like the same old Browns but I believe the Rams finally have the ability to improve way beyond their years in the NFL basement, they have a stout defence and some decent weapons in Gurley and Austin, their coming off a bye and had extra days to rest so I’m taking the Rams -5.5 at 1.84 with Matchbook.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

My Prices – Jets 3.80 Patriots 1.36

Vegas Line – Patriots -8

The Patriots have two big injury worries coming into this match with Julian Edelman & Marcus Cannon. If Edelman is limited again, Brady won't be as effective. He'll still be on track to score plenty of points, but he won't move the chains as consistently.

The Jets are getting more pressure on the quarterback now with Sheldon Richardson back in the line-up, so Cannon's availability is huge for Brady’s safety.

The Jets will have success running the ball with Chris Ivory. The Patriots have the sixth-worst rush defence in the NFL and Ivory has been an animal this season, he could have another strong performance. QB Fitzpatrick will be protected very well. The Patriots have a decent pass rush, but the Jets have only given up two sacks all year.

The Jets own the league's top run defence so LeGarrette Blount is in for a tough afternoon and this will be the Patriots sternest test of the season, even if they can’t win, I see the Jets keeping it close.

Back the New York Jets +8 at 1.91 with Matchbook.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

 

My Prices – Eagles 2.35 Panthers 1.73

Vegas Line – Panthers -3

The Eagles QB Sam Bradford threw three interceptions last Monday and the team fumbled the ball on numerous occasions, it really should have cost them the game but the Giants were sloppy. The Panthers don't have such issues. They're third against the pass in my rankings thanks to an awesome secondary and a decent pass rush; they are also tied for third in the league with eight interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns. Cornerback Josh Norman has been very solid in Carolina’s secondary with a league-high four interceptions (two pick-sixes) and a forced fumble as well.

So Chip Kelly will try to establish the run with his two talented running backs and the Panthers run defence is the easiest the Eagles will face so far this year, ranking 18^th in my defensive rankings, this in my opinion will shape the game as Philly won’t be relying on Bradford to move the ball through the air and can dominate on the ground, moving the chains with ease.

The Panthers don't have the greatest blocking in the league and the Eagles have 18 turnovers in six games and a top four ranked defence. To beat Philadelphia’s defence the Panthers will need QB Cam Newton and RB Jonathan Stewart who have carried the Panthers offense this season to be firing on all cylinders against a defence that has gone 18 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. Can Carolina move the ball effectively here? I think this is a bad match up for them.

This spread is way too short in my opinion the Panthers are 5-0 but have been far from convincing and it seems to me Vegas wants Panthers -3 money so all things considered I’m taking the Eagles +3 at 2.0 with Bet365.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers

 

My Prices – Raiders 2.50 Chargers 1.67

Vegas Line – Chargers -4

Philip Rivers just had the game of his life. He threw for 503 yards and two touchdowns in an amazing effort against Green Bay. The Raiders defence is poor against the pass ranking 23^rd in my defensive rankings and the Chargers have the 5^th best pass attack in the NFL so at first glance this looks like a very favourable match up for San Diego. Rivers is a great quarterback, but it would be unfair to expect him to play on the same type of level again, he just doesn't have the offensive line to be incredibly consistent. The blocking unit is a shambles because of injuries in fact the Chargers are coming in extremely banged up: Gates has a MCL sprain, Melvin Gordon is not 100% and Weddle has been ruled out. These are all integral players for San Diego who are either missing the game or aren't at full fitness.

The Chargers have some major issues on defence as well. They have the league's worst-ranked rush defence so Latavius Murray will definitely exploit this opportunity. San Diego isn't as bad against the pass, but as Weddle is missing Derek Carr could have a strong performance throwing to Amari Cooper.

The Chargers' only chance is to put as much pressure on Carr as possible. While it might seem like they have a good chance of doing so considering that they've racked up 10 sacks in their last three games, it also has to be considered that Carr is shielded pretty well. The Raiders are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks surrendered this season, so Carr should have time in the pocket to find his receivers.

I can see this game staying close and the Raiders defence coming out strong. I’m taking the Raiders +4 at 1.90 with Bet365 as they have been in every game this year except for opening day against the undefeated Bengals.

Thursday Night Football - Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers

 

My Prices – Seahawks 1.54 49ers 2.90

Vegas Line – Seahawks -6.5

The Seahawks blew another 4^th quarter lead to lose to the Panthers on Sunday to go to 2-4. Russell Wilson is constantly running for his life as the offensive line cannot block but he manoeuvres the pocket well and either scramble’s for first downs or buys time allowing his receivers to get open. The 49ers currently have the 30^th ranked pass rush in the league so Seattle will move the chains through the air. Unfortunately for the 49ers they also have a mediocre rush defence currently ranked 27^th in the league, so Lynch should have a dominant performance and he has a good chance of hitting the century mark in this contest.

Kaepernick started the season with two touchdowns and five picks in his first four games, but in the last two games, he’s thrown for 602 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. Sounds good huh? But they came against the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens, who have some of the worst pass defences in the league and he will have a tough time dealing with the Seattle pass rush as the 49ers don’t shield him very well, they're in the bottom five in terms of sacks given up.

Seattle has more weapons on both sides of the ball, and will protect it better, as long as the secondary doesn’t self-destruct late on for a third consecutive week they should cover the spread, if the 49ers want to be competitive they're going to have to open the field up against this Seattle defence which I can’t see Kaepernick doing.

What is clear is whichever team comes away with the victory in this contest likely retains the slim hope of making the playoffs. And the loser, well there "done" for the season.

This spread opened up at -4, but it has been bet up to -6.5. I would've loved Seattle at -4 so am going to buy half a point to keep the push on our side and take Seahawks -6 at 1.85 with Matchbook.

I’m also keen on going with Marshawn Lynch over 80.5 rushing yards at 1.91 with Ladbrokes.

Week Six - Previews

NFL – Week 6

Washington Redskins @ New York Jets

My Prices – Redskins 3.10 Jets 1.49 

Vegas Line – Jets -6.5

The Redskins came close to beating the Falcons in the Georgia Dome last week but gave it away in OT  and the Jets should be feeling refreshed after a week off. Both these teams rely on their run game but unfortunately for the Redskins the Jets are ranked number 1 in run defence and number 2 overall in defence behind Denver. Did you realise the Jets have actually surrendered the fewest sacks (2) in the NFL this season?

The Redskins have been below average in run defence this season so I can see Jets RB Chris Ivory pounding it again and again. He had a huge game against the Dolphins two weeks ago racking up 166 yards and a touchdown.

The challenge the Redskins face will be scoring; it’ll be very difficult for them to move the chains, especially if TE Jordan Reed misses the game. Washington’s QB Kirk Cousins' options are limited due to injuries and at the moment he seems to be a liability, he really needs to improve his game management skills as he’s thrown far too many interceptions to be effective and if he continues in this vein the Jets secondary will pick him off with ease.

The line has moved from -6 to -6.5 so to keep the push on our side I’m buying half a point and taking Jets -6 at 1.84 on Matchbook.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns

My Prices – Broncos 1.64 Browns 2.65

Vegas Line – Broncos -4

Peyton Manning continues to struggle; His protection just isn't there as his offensive line cannot block. Cleveland's pass rush is poor, but it could have success putting heavy heat on Manning.

It'd be nice for Peyton if he could depend on his ground attack to help him move the chains, the Browns have a weak ground defence but can the Bronco’s take advantage of a defence that gives up 149.4 yards per game on the ground and 251 ypg in the air?

The Broncos top the league rankings in most of the defensive categories and despite their injuries have plenty of dynamic defenders who can get to the quarterback, they will hit McCown hard as Cleveland's offensive line has surrendered plenty of sacks this season despite McCown playing perhaps the best football of his career. He now faces his stiffest test yet against the NFL's best defence.

Denver are 4-1 against the spread this season and this is all down to their awesome defence they just always seem to find a way to cover, the Browns are over-rated after their recent escapades and this line is massive value as it was -5.5 before last week’s games. Back the Broncos -4 at 2.02 with Matchbook.

San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers

My Prices – Chargers 4.60 Packers 1.28

Vegas Line – Packers -10.5

The Packers are the best team in the NFL right now and the Chargers are playing some terrible football at the moment, they can’t seem to run the ball and they can’t stop the run in fact the team can't block whatsoever.  It's hard to see things getting better against the Packers, who place massive amounts of pressure on the quarterback. They've accumulated a whopping 16 sacks in the past three weeks and unless the blocking improves the Chargers QB Rivers may not escape from this game without an injury.

I seriously can’t see how the Chargers are going to move the chains at all here and this could end in an ugly blowout. Take the Packers -10 at 1.90 with Matchbook.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

My Prices – Panthers 2.74 Seahawks 1.56

Vegas Line – Seahawks -7

The problem with the Seahawks is they have no offensive line so QB Wilson has to scramble for safety more often than not, they will have issues moving the chains in this contest as the Panthers have one of the best secondary’s in the NFL, so they need to get Lynch going early on and establish a ground game to stay competitive.

With Chancellor unfit, Richard Sherman mediocre and Cary Williams abysmal, the Legion of Boom is not nearly what it once was and the Panthers QB Newton will be able to create plays especially to TE Greg Olsen this will effectively move the chains.

The Seahawks have won five straight games against the Panthers hence the crazy price, the scores of three of those recent games were 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 this gives us a sense of what kind of matchup we are in for, I think this meeting stays a low-scoring game and giving the Panthers +7 is too much. Back Carolina +7 at 2.00 with Matchbook.