Week Six - Previews

NFL – Week 6

Washington Redskins @ New York Jets

My Prices – Redskins 3.10 Jets 1.49 

Vegas Line – Jets -6.5

The Redskins came close to beating the Falcons in the Georgia Dome last week but gave it away in OT  and the Jets should be feeling refreshed after a week off. Both these teams rely on their run game but unfortunately for the Redskins the Jets are ranked number 1 in run defence and number 2 overall in defence behind Denver. Did you realise the Jets have actually surrendered the fewest sacks (2) in the NFL this season?

The Redskins have been below average in run defence this season so I can see Jets RB Chris Ivory pounding it again and again. He had a huge game against the Dolphins two weeks ago racking up 166 yards and a touchdown.

The challenge the Redskins face will be scoring; it’ll be very difficult for them to move the chains, especially if TE Jordan Reed misses the game. Washington’s QB Kirk Cousins' options are limited due to injuries and at the moment he seems to be a liability, he really needs to improve his game management skills as he’s thrown far too many interceptions to be effective and if he continues in this vein the Jets secondary will pick him off with ease.

The line has moved from -6 to -6.5 so to keep the push on our side I’m buying half a point and taking Jets -6 at 1.84 on Matchbook.

Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns

My Prices – Broncos 1.64 Browns 2.65

Vegas Line – Broncos -4

Peyton Manning continues to struggle; His protection just isn't there as his offensive line cannot block. Cleveland's pass rush is poor, but it could have success putting heavy heat on Manning.

It'd be nice for Peyton if he could depend on his ground attack to help him move the chains, the Browns have a weak ground defence but can the Bronco’s take advantage of a defence that gives up 149.4 yards per game on the ground and 251 ypg in the air?

The Broncos top the league rankings in most of the defensive categories and despite their injuries have plenty of dynamic defenders who can get to the quarterback, they will hit McCown hard as Cleveland's offensive line has surrendered plenty of sacks this season despite McCown playing perhaps the best football of his career. He now faces his stiffest test yet against the NFL's best defence.

Denver are 4-1 against the spread this season and this is all down to their awesome defence they just always seem to find a way to cover, the Browns are over-rated after their recent escapades and this line is massive value as it was -5.5 before last week’s games. Back the Broncos -4 at 2.02 with Matchbook.

San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers

My Prices – Chargers 4.60 Packers 1.28

Vegas Line – Packers -10.5

The Packers are the best team in the NFL right now and the Chargers are playing some terrible football at the moment, they can’t seem to run the ball and they can’t stop the run in fact the team can't block whatsoever.  It's hard to see things getting better against the Packers, who place massive amounts of pressure on the quarterback. They've accumulated a whopping 16 sacks in the past three weeks and unless the blocking improves the Chargers QB Rivers may not escape from this game without an injury.

I seriously can’t see how the Chargers are going to move the chains at all here and this could end in an ugly blowout. Take the Packers -10 at 1.90 with Matchbook.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks

My Prices – Panthers 2.74 Seahawks 1.56

Vegas Line – Seahawks -7

The problem with the Seahawks is they have no offensive line so QB Wilson has to scramble for safety more often than not, they will have issues moving the chains in this contest as the Panthers have one of the best secondary’s in the NFL, so they need to get Lynch going early on and establish a ground game to stay competitive.

With Chancellor unfit, Richard Sherman mediocre and Cary Williams abysmal, the Legion of Boom is not nearly what it once was and the Panthers QB Newton will be able to create plays especially to TE Greg Olsen this will effectively move the chains.

The Seahawks have won five straight games against the Panthers hence the crazy price, the scores of three of those recent games were 16-12, 12-7 and 13-9 this gives us a sense of what kind of matchup we are in for, I think this meeting stays a low-scoring game and giving the Panthers +7 is too much. Back Carolina +7 at 2.00 with Matchbook.