Week Four Previews

New York Jets V Miami Dolphins in London

 

My Prices – Jets 1.88 Dolphins 2.10

Vegas Line - Jets -1.5

The Dolphins offence has been very poor up to this point and it’s difficult to imagine Ryan Tannehill having much success going up against a secondary that has restricted each quarterback it has faced so far this season.

There defence has not been performing much better and tackling continues to look like a massive issue for the Dolphins it will be tough for them to get to the Jets QB Fitzpatrick, given how well New York’s offensive line has been blocking.

Miami are a better team than they have shown but can’t be backed with any confidence at the moment, I will be watching this match with a view to trading it, if Miami show any signs of life we will get a swing in the prices.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

 

My Prices – Jaguars 3.80 Colts 1.35

Vegas Line - Colts -9

The Colts can’t pass protect whatsoever; even the Titans put plenty of pressure on Luck which forced him to throw a couple of interceptions. The Jaguars should be able to generate a decent amount of pressure on the quarterback here and the Colts offensive line won't be able to keep the Jaguars out of the backfield.

So with that in mind it’s a good job that the Jacksonville secondary is a mess and won’t be able to cover the Colts receivers.

Bortles, like Luck, will be under heavy pressure in this game and he may have difficulty targeting his receiver’s with players like Vontae Davis in the backfield. With that in mind, the Jaguars will have to try to establish the run. The problem there is the Colts have been useful defending the run so far this year; they limited LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory in the first two weeks.

I think the Colts will win, but it’s not for me as they have been very inconsistent so far and need to be watched, the Jaguars could cover the spread here at +9 as 17 of the last 26 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 8 points or fewer but I personally can’t trust them to do so.

Andrew Luck saw limited practice time on Thursday and the Indianapolis Colts remain hopeful that their star quarterback can play Sunday despite an injury to his throwing shoulder but if he can’t make it onto the field I’d fancy the Jaguars to cover the spread.

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons

 

My Prices – Texans 3.10 Falcons 1.47

Vegas Line - Falcons -6.5

Defensively the Falcons are much improved this year; this is down to the influence of new Head Coach Dan Quinn. Offensively Matt Ryan to Julio Jones is fire and they went 12-for-18 for 164 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday.

The Texans pass rush, led by J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney is one of the best in the league and should be able to put pressure on Ryan, this is the best defence the Falcons have faced so far this season and it will be interesting to see if they can score as freely as they have been.

Last Sunday Ryan Mallett and the Texans took to the quick passing game and won their first game of the season, the Falcons don't have the best pass rush and if Mallett can find Hopkins regularly then Houston can keep this match close, especially if they get there ground game going as well with the possible return of Arian Foster a huge plus.

It will be interesting to see if Atlanta can carry the expectation of being heavy favourites for the first time this season coming into this match,  Houston haven't lost by more than seven all year and there defence will keep them in the running here so I’m taking some Texans +6.5 at 1.92 with Matchbook.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

My Prices – Panthers 1.72 Buccaneers 2.35

Vegas Line - Panthers -3

Carolina are 3-0 but have not yet been seriously tested, this is the team’s fourth consecutive game against an opponent with a losing record but looking at the Buccaneers as the same team that has been terrible for the last two years might be overlooking the positive signs that they’ve put together.

After saying that though the Panthers’ offense is coming off of its best performance of the season. Cam Newton went 20-of-31 for 315 yards and three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and the line only allowed one sack. 

Tampa Bay’s defence has been solid, but there’s only so far that can take you. If the Buccaneers can’t find any running room against one of the NFL's elite ground defences it will be a long day for Jameis Winston as Carolina’s secondary is turning out to be pretty dam useful and I can see Carolina staying focused for this key divisional game.

Carolina -3 looks a solid play here at 1.91 with the Tote.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills

 

My Prices – Giants 3.15 Bills 1.48

Vegas Line - Bills -5.5

New York could just as easily be 3-0, but it squandered fourth-quarter leads against both Dallas and Atlanta to begin the 2015 campaign 1-2. They also have the added bonus of 10 days off having played last Thursday instead of Sunday.

Buffalo have a well rounded team with the top run defence in the NFL, getting the Giants to establish the ground game won’t come easy so they will have to launch a passing attack as the Bills pass rush is non-existent this makes it crucial for the Giants that their receivers step up their game against a Buffalo secondary that has been very poor so far this season.

I think this will be a very swingy game with both sides leading at some point but I like the Giants to cover the spread here and am taking the +5.5 at 1.95 with Matchbook.

Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears

 

My Prices – Raiders 1.76 Bears 2.30

Vegas Line - Raiders -3

Matt Forte might be Chicago's only productive offensive player. The Raiders haven't been very good against the run this year, so Forte could approach the century mark on the ground. Clausen, however, will not be able to capitalize, even with Jeffery returning to the field. He's just too limited, and his offensive line won't give him a chance against Khalil Mack and company.

For all their struggles this season, the Bears haven't been terrible against the run, but that's about to change. Allen hadn't gotten to the quarterback very much, but he was still pretty decent in rush support. With him gone, Chicago will worsen against opposing ground attacks, so Latavius Murray will be able to go off.

Meanwhile, Derek Carr and Amari Cooper figure to torch Chicago's secondary. We all know the issues the Bears have in their defensive backfield, and Cooper is the first Oakland receiver in 10 years to post back-to-back games with at least 100 yards. He is also the only rookie in the last 30 years of the league to record a pair of 100-yard receiving games in his first three NFL outings. He has abused the Ravens and Browns, both of whom have much better defences than the Bears do. Carr should have all day to find Cooper. He has taken just three sacks thus far in 2015, so I don't see Chicago's pass rush giving him any sort of trouble.

This seems tempting but I need to see if the Raiders are as good as they look, Chicago are in full on tank mode.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

 

My Prices – Eagles 1.72 Redskins 2.38

Vegas Line - Eagles -3

The Redskins have the third-best rushing defence this season, allowing just 75 yards per game; they also have the fourth-best rushing offense (144 yards per game). Washington’s pair of running backs has been solid. Alfred Morris has rushed for 199 yards on 49 carries this season, while Matt Jones has 189 yards and two scores on 36 carries.

The Eagles still have fundamental flaws with their team. They can't block very well, and despite the Redskins being poor in the secondary, especially with DeAngelo Hall injured, they have a strong defensive front. The Eagles also struggle to pass protect and their issues in the secondary are well documented.

Fortunately for the Eagles, the one thing they do well is ground defence which will limit the Redskins potent running game. Also hurting Washington is Shawn Lauvao's absence. Lauvao, the team's top run-blocking lineman, left early against the Giants, and Matt Jones and Alfred Morris struggled to find running room as a consequence, this is bad news for Washington.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals

 

My Prices – Chiefs 2.55 Bengals 1.64

Vegas Line - Bengals -3.5

The Bengals should dominate the line of scrimmage in this matchup. Geno Atkins has been an animal this season. The Chiefs have shown an inability to block with their pedestrian offensive line, so Atkins and the other Cincinnati defensive linemen will make life extremely difficult for Smith who has already been sacked 13 times this season, this is especially alarming considering he rarely holds the ball for any length of time in a passing game predicated on underneath patterns and receivers making plays after the catch.

The strength of the Chiefs' defence is their great pass rush, as Tamba Hali and Justin Houston apply great pressure on opposing quarterbacks. However, they could have a challenge in this matchup, given how well Andy Dalton is protected. Dalton has been sacked just twice through three games thus far, and while he might be brought down on one or two occasions in this contest, he should have time in the pocket on most of his snaps. In fact the Bengals offense has excellent balance and big-play receiving threats, with a strong backfield duo in Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard.

Kansas City’s secondary will also have to step up or else they will get humiliated by the Bengals’ terrific cast of receivers and it seems the Chiefs are likely to struggle where the Bengals excel.

Theres just too many holes in the Chiefs here and with home field advantage I’m going with the Bengals -3.5 at 2.00 with Matchbook.

Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers

 

My Prices – Browns 3.40 Chargers 1.41

Vegas Line - Chargers -7

The Browns should cover this line as the Chargers offensive line was beaten up badly last week against Minnesota and is missing four starters for this game; The Chargers defensive line hasn’t been able to stop the run this year, but I wouldn't expect San Diego to surrender 160 yards on the ground for the third-consecutive week.

The Browns secondary has been completely exposed this year, after it was one of the best in the NFL in 2014 but with no blocking for Rivers can San Diego take advantage?

I feel the spread is too high but it’s the Browns we’re talking about here and I’m not happy putting money down on a match between a poor team and a banged up team.

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos

 

My Prices – Vikings 3.15 Broncos 1.47

Vegas Line - Broncos -7

Denver has faced two weak defences in the past couple of matches so they could have their work cut out with the Vikings. Minnesota's stop unit has been excellent since losing the season opener. The secondary is packed with talent, while the pass rush is solid as well. The Broncos have some protection issues up front, so things could break down for Manning during crucial moments.

The Broncos defence is the best in the league and have already registered 11 sacks, six interceptions and two return touchdowns. Von Miller against rookie right tackle T.J. Clemmings could be an absolute nightmare for the Vikings here.

This will be a low scoring game as it’s hard to see Minnesota coming out on top in Denver so I’m going with under 42.5 points at 1.93 with Matchbook.