Week Seven Previews

Cleveland Browns @ St Louis Rams

My Prices – Browns 2.93 Rams 1.52

Vegas Line – Rams -6.5

The Rams rookie Todd Gurley might just be the best running back in the NFL right now. In his two full games, he has rushed for 146 and 159 yards against the Cardinals and Packers. Cleveland have the 31^st ranked run defence on my defensive rankings, he will go over 100 yards again and I don’t see how the Browns can stop him.

The Browns' offensive line will have its hands full with the Rams' pass rush making life extremely difficult for QB McCown and unlike the Rams, Cleveland doesn't have any ground attack to compensate. 

The Browns have struggled to finish games this year and look like the same old Browns but I believe the Rams finally have the ability to improve way beyond their years in the NFL basement, they have a stout defence and some decent weapons in Gurley and Austin, their coming off a bye and had extra days to rest so I’m taking the Rams -5.5 at 1.84 with Matchbook.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots

My Prices – Jets 3.80 Patriots 1.36

Vegas Line – Patriots -8

The Patriots have two big injury worries coming into this match with Julian Edelman & Marcus Cannon. If Edelman is limited again, Brady won't be as effective. He'll still be on track to score plenty of points, but he won't move the chains as consistently.

The Jets are getting more pressure on the quarterback now with Sheldon Richardson back in the line-up, so Cannon's availability is huge for Brady’s safety.

The Jets will have success running the ball with Chris Ivory. The Patriots have the sixth-worst rush defence in the NFL and Ivory has been an animal this season, he could have another strong performance. QB Fitzpatrick will be protected very well. The Patriots have a decent pass rush, but the Jets have only given up two sacks all year.

The Jets own the league's top run defence so LeGarrette Blount is in for a tough afternoon and this will be the Patriots sternest test of the season, even if they can’t win, I see the Jets keeping it close.

Back the New York Jets +8 at 1.91 with Matchbook.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers

 

My Prices – Eagles 2.35 Panthers 1.73

Vegas Line – Panthers -3

The Eagles QB Sam Bradford threw three interceptions last Monday and the team fumbled the ball on numerous occasions, it really should have cost them the game but the Giants were sloppy. The Panthers don't have such issues. They're third against the pass in my rankings thanks to an awesome secondary and a decent pass rush; they are also tied for third in the league with eight interceptions including two that were returned for touchdowns. Cornerback Josh Norman has been very solid in Carolina’s secondary with a league-high four interceptions (two pick-sixes) and a forced fumble as well.

So Chip Kelly will try to establish the run with his two talented running backs and the Panthers run defence is the easiest the Eagles will face so far this year, ranking 18^th in my defensive rankings, this in my opinion will shape the game as Philly won’t be relying on Bradford to move the ball through the air and can dominate on the ground, moving the chains with ease.

The Panthers don't have the greatest blocking in the league and the Eagles have 18 turnovers in six games and a top four ranked defence. To beat Philadelphia’s defence the Panthers will need QB Cam Newton and RB Jonathan Stewart who have carried the Panthers offense this season to be firing on all cylinders against a defence that has gone 18 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. Can Carolina move the ball effectively here? I think this is a bad match up for them.

This spread is way too short in my opinion the Panthers are 5-0 but have been far from convincing and it seems to me Vegas wants Panthers -3 money so all things considered I’m taking the Eagles +3 at 2.0 with Bet365.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers

 

My Prices – Raiders 2.50 Chargers 1.67

Vegas Line – Chargers -4

Philip Rivers just had the game of his life. He threw for 503 yards and two touchdowns in an amazing effort against Green Bay. The Raiders defence is poor against the pass ranking 23^rd in my defensive rankings and the Chargers have the 5^th best pass attack in the NFL so at first glance this looks like a very favourable match up for San Diego. Rivers is a great quarterback, but it would be unfair to expect him to play on the same type of level again, he just doesn't have the offensive line to be incredibly consistent. The blocking unit is a shambles because of injuries in fact the Chargers are coming in extremely banged up: Gates has a MCL sprain, Melvin Gordon is not 100% and Weddle has been ruled out. These are all integral players for San Diego who are either missing the game or aren't at full fitness.

The Chargers have some major issues on defence as well. They have the league's worst-ranked rush defence so Latavius Murray will definitely exploit this opportunity. San Diego isn't as bad against the pass, but as Weddle is missing Derek Carr could have a strong performance throwing to Amari Cooper.

The Chargers' only chance is to put as much pressure on Carr as possible. While it might seem like they have a good chance of doing so considering that they've racked up 10 sacks in their last three games, it also has to be considered that Carr is shielded pretty well. The Raiders are tied for the eighth-fewest sacks surrendered this season, so Carr should have time in the pocket to find his receivers.

I can see this game staying close and the Raiders defence coming out strong. I’m taking the Raiders +4 at 1.90 with Bet365 as they have been in every game this year except for opening day against the undefeated Bengals.