NFL Week Three

WEEK 3 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Vikings 2.90 Panthers 1.52

Vegas Line - Panthers -7

The Panthers finally opened their winning account last week against a poor 49ers side after losing the opener in Denver. However, their struggles in Denver were predictable as their offensive tackles are a liability and they couldn't protect QB Newton against the fierce Denver pass rush.

This will prove to be a major problem again in this matchup as the Vikings have a couple of dynamic edge rushers in DE Griffen and DE Hunter who will be able to pressure Newton, so Cam’s protection is going to be a issue as the Vikings defence is every bit as good as Denver’s. It would help if the Panthers could run the ball, but that will prove difficult as well. Not only will first choice RB Stewart be missing from this match-up, but the Vikings have one of the top run defences in the NFL, allowing a paltry 3.3 Yards Per Carry , of course QB Newton will pick up a handful of first downs with his legs, but I can't imagine Carolina's offense being overly consistent.

Carolina’s secondary was thought to be the team’s biggest weakness going into the season, but so far it has been strong, it will face a different test though against the Vikings as WR Diggs has been the best receiver in the league over the 1^st two weeks. Vikings QB Bradford is naturally careful with the ball and if he can connect with Diggs on a regular basis then the Vikings will be able to move the chains and score.

The Vikings run game has been non-existent so far this season and can only improve but with RB Peterson out and a Carolina elite front 7 baring down on the QB the Vikings may have trouble moving the chains once more on the ground, but to be fair this hasn’t stopped them racking up two wins in the opening two games.

I think this line is an overreaction to two things, one RB Peterson being out for the Vikings and two Carolina's 46-27 win over San Francisco. The 49ers were coming off a big victory in a late Monday night game then had to travel across the country to play an early start, and yet they hung around while the Panthers made some sloppy errors. I don't think that bodes well for this matchup, as Carolina will lose outright if it commits the same sort of mistakes against one of the best defences in the league.

I’m backing the Vikings +7 at 1.95 with Sporting Bet.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Ravens 1.61 Jaguars 2.65

Vegas Line - Ravens -1

The Jaguars got everyone excited following their Week 1 showing against the Packers, but based on what we saw last Sunday night, Green Bay might not be the team we thought they are. Jacksonville also has some major injury issues with CB Amukamara and OT Beachum banged up and for me it’s difficult to win without your best defensive back and top offensive lineman.

The Ravens’ front-7 has looked awesome over the first 2 weeks, pressuring the QB and making them pay hard and often. The Jaguars have a terrible offensive line, especially more so now that Beachum is out, so with QB Bortles under pressure, the Jaguars would be smart to move to a dink and dunk offense, but I don’t really think they’re built for that. Wide receivers Robinson and Hurns are both excellent but their strength really is the long-ball, and I like the Ravens’ chances of shutting this phase of the game out, especially with CB Smith and S Weddle patrolling the secondary. So QB Bortles won't have much time in the pocket to find his dynamic receivers downfield, and he also won't have much support from his rushing attack, as the Ravens can stop the run pretty well holding opponents to a stellar 2.7 YPC on the season so far.

The Ravens scored 23 straight points in the 2^nd half against the Browns last week and I expect similar here as the Jaguars aren’t much better defensively, there secondary has holes through injury and their pass rush is non-existent, the Ravens offensive line has protected QB Flacco well over the first two games and he should have enough time to hit his receivers for significant gains throughout the afternoon.

Now the Ravens are quite clearly the better team but the only thing that worries me is Baltimores running attack which is really poor, this will keep them from putting the Jags away late in the game and we could fall to a backdoor cover in garbage time, but I make this spread Ravens -6 so once more we’re getting massive line value and I’m looking at backing the Ravens -1.5 with Paddy Power who go an amazing 2.0 when the rest of the books are between 1.85 & 1.90.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

My Prices – Chargers 2.50 Colts 1.66

Vegas Line – Chargers +1.5

The Colts QB Luck couldn’t do anything against the Broncos last week, they destroyed him with a ridiculous amount of pressure; and for me the Colts offensive line is especially weak on the right side. The Chargers will put some heat on Luck, but not nearly as much as Denver applied. Luck, as a result, will have a chance to engineer some consistent drives. The Chargers, however, own a trio of very potent cornerbacks and they put the clamps on Jacksonville's aerial attack last week so it’s more than possible they could hinder Luck's receivers in this match.

For me the way to beat San Diego's is by ground and pound and generally just getting the ball to the running back, just like the Chiefs did with Spencer Ware in Week 1. The problem for the Colts is that RB Gore isn't nearly the same player he once was and I can’t see them having too much success there.

The Colts are a mess. They can't block, pressure the quarterback, stop the run or cover anyone and the Chargers QB Rivers torched the Jaguars last week so with all the injuries in Indy’s secondary (they lost 5 cornerbacks to injury against Denver) I can’t see who can slow Rivers down in this matchup. I also like the Chargers RB Gordon as he has emerged as one of the better young running backs in the league and he can trample a weak Indianapolis front seven into the ground.

I can see this being a ground based game and on that basis the over/under points total of 51 is set too high and I’m predicting a much lower scoring game myself, in fact my model reckons there will be 42 points in total so with such a discrepancy I’m backing under 51 points at 1.97 with Matchbook.

NFL Week Two

WEEK 2 – NFL

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

My Prices – Dolphins 3.20 Patriots 1.43

Vegas Line - Patriots -6.5

Miami were improving at the backend of last season and that seems to have continued after a solid showing against the Seahawks in week one, they really should of won but for some dropped passes and that’s no mean feat against one of the best defences in the league in a hostile environment in Seattle.

Dolphins QB Tannehill doesn’t really convince me but if he keeps things simple with a short passing attack his offensive line will hold up well as the Patriots have no outstanding pass rushers. With Miami’s WR Landry & WR Stills getting open on a regular basis against the stellar Seahawks secondary you’d like to think they can at least do the same to the Patriots.

I’m not too sure how the running game is going to work out as Miami RB Foster couldn’t get going against the Seahawks which is to be expected and the Patriots run defence got torched by one of the best RB in the league in Arizona’s Johnson, Foster for me is only ordinary and the Pats runs defence should hold up a little better unless it’s truly awful.

With the Patriots young QB Garoppolo possibly liable to make some mistakes in the pressure of his first ever divisional game and with a very questionable offensive line in front of him we see a huge mismatch as the Dolphins elite defenders Suh, Wake and Williams will look to absolutely destroy the Patriots extremely dodgy blocking unit, I guess we’ll find out what QB Garoppolo is really made of on Sunday morning.

So with Miami’s fierce pass rush and a young and inexperienced stand-in QB the Patriots will have to resort to dink and dunking and running the ball, which is no bad thing as we know the Patriots can scheme and win against anyone as they probably will here to be honest with you but I don’t think they can cover this spread, for me the Patriots and Dolphins are pretty close right now under current circumstances and giving 6.5 points is a lot to overcome when a very limited offense is battling a talented defence and on that basis I’m backing the Dolphins +6.5 at 1.98 with Marathon Bet.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

My Prices – Saints 2.65 Giants 1.60

Vegas Line - Giants -4.5

Last season when these two teams met in the Superdome they racked up 13 touchdowns between them in a 52-49 shootout. I don’t think that’s going to be the case this year, firstly the Saints aren’t nearly as effective outside the Superdome and the Giants have improved their defence, especially the pass rush where new signings DE Vernon & DT Harrison have improved the unit so for me they will be able to exploit the Saints questionable offensive line, I still think the Saints QB Brees will still engineer some scoring drives as he’s that good and they have capable receivers in Cooks & Snead but this won’t be the shootout the books are projecting.

The Giants like the Saints have a suspect offensive line and DE Jordan should be in QB Mannings face all afternoon as New York are very weak at the Tackle position. The Giants don’t have the greatest running game either although the Saints don’t have the best secondary, especially after their number one corner Breaux is done for the season, through the air the Giants could hurt the Saints and WR Beckham, Shepherd & Cruz could all have big afternoons if the line can protect QB Manning.

The line that caught my eye here is the total points and under 53.5 is my play, I can understand the inflated total after last season’s result as I mentioned at the start of the preview but these are two totally different teams to a year ago and they’re not going to rack up a ton of points again, the Giants should of scored more last week if they had a truly potent offence as the Cowboys defence was not healthy and missing some key players, they only managed 20 and would of lost the game if Dallas employed some better clock management and actually had receivers that could catch the ball. I’m backing under 53.5 points at 1.99 with Marathon.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

My Prices – Eagles 2.45 Bears 1.66

Vegas Line - Bears -3

The Eagles rookie QB and number one pick in the draft Wentz made an impressive debut last week but it was against the Browns and they couldn’t bring any sort of pressure on him at all and he had a clean pocket for most of the game, that won’t happen here in Chicago as the Bears have a stout front 7 who rush the QB well, they also limited the Texans rushing attack to small yards last week and Houston have a better ground game than the Eagles. The Bears do have some major issues at safety but I like their corners Porter and Fuller and they should be able to handle Philly’s unproven receiving group when Wentz has time to throw.

Bears QB Cutler was beaten up last week in Houston sacked 5 times and hit another 13 times but the Texans have an elite defence and that is not the case with the Eagles so he should get better protection here and more time in the pocket to find his talented receivers Jeffrey & White who match up well against Philly’s suspect cornerbacks. I would also expect RB Langford to have a better game than last week as he will be running against a defence that surrendered more than five yards per carry to the Browns.

The Bears are underrated and I make this line Chicago -5 so to get -3 is a gift, the Eagles are riding the hype behind the number 1 pick in the draft and his impressive debut but the Browns have possibly the worst defence in the NFL and he couldn’t really have asked for an easier first game. I think the Bears are better than the Eagles at this stage, they own a comparable defensive front seven and a more-experienced quarterback with better offensive play-makers, so on that basis I’m backing the Bears -3 with Betway at 1.91

NFL Week 1

WEEK 1 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

My Prices - Vikings 1.41 Titans 3.40

Vegas Line - Vikings -2.5

I like the Vikings here; despite the QB injury I still think they're easily a top-10 team, they have arguably the best defence in the NFL, a potent running game, some play-makers on offense, and a terrific coaching staff. I’m not sure the public has caught on how good this team can be, they really don’t have many weaknesses and considering they didn’t lose anyone worth mentioning over the off-season there’s no reason to think they will take a step back, you could even argue that the young group will improve again this season due to more experience under their belts.

The one thing the Titans do well defensively is rush the QB but the secondary has some glaring weaknesses so WR Diggs won't have much resistance from the defensive backs and the run defence looks to be only average at best so RB Peterson will be able to rip right through the Tennessee front.

The Titans made some changes to their offensive line this offseason but I don't think the blockers will be able to handle Minnesota's ferocious front seven and QB Mariota will be in for a rough afternoon, I can’t see new signing RB Murray finding many open lanes either as running into DT Floyd and DT Joseph will prove to be extremely difficult. For me the big factor in this match-up is the experience the Vikings’ defence has playing together and it should give them a big edge over a Tennessee offense that has fewer elite players and less experience together.

 It won't be pretty, but the Vikings should be able to do enough to put themselves in position to win this contest and I’m taking the Vikings -2.5 at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

My Prices - Bengals 2.04 Jets 1.96

Vegas Line - Bengals -2.5

The Bengals lost a lot of production this offseason on both sides of the ball, but the offense took the biggest hit losing two WR and an OT, can QB Dalton cope as I have a feeling he will regress this season and if he can’t continue to put up big numbers through the air then that will place a lot of emphasis on the running game where to be fair they have two decent RB in Hill & Bernard, trouble there is the Jets’ defensive front is stellar at stuffing the run though with the trio of DE Richardson, DE Wilkerson and DE Williams, although the first named is suspended for this match.

On defence the Bengals look to have an above average unit, possibly the best in the AFC North but they lost a couple of key players in their secondary, especially at the corner position, so the Jets may have some success throwing to talented receivers Decker & Marshall as they match up well here.

I’m a bit surprised by this spread of Jets +2.5. I do realise that the Bengals have put together five straight winning seasons (all resulting in Wild Card playoff losses), but being favourites in New York to a very solid team in the Jets is pushing it a bit. I make the spread Jets -0.5 so to get +2.5 is giving us 3 points of line value and on that basis I’m backing the Jets +2.5 at 1.99 with Matchbook.