NFL Week 1

WEEK 1 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans

My Prices - Vikings 1.41 Titans 3.40

Vegas Line - Vikings -2.5

I like the Vikings here; despite the QB injury I still think they're easily a top-10 team, they have arguably the best defence in the NFL, a potent running game, some play-makers on offense, and a terrific coaching staff. I’m not sure the public has caught on how good this team can be, they really don’t have many weaknesses and considering they didn’t lose anyone worth mentioning over the off-season there’s no reason to think they will take a step back, you could even argue that the young group will improve again this season due to more experience under their belts.

The one thing the Titans do well defensively is rush the QB but the secondary has some glaring weaknesses so WR Diggs won't have much resistance from the defensive backs and the run defence looks to be only average at best so RB Peterson will be able to rip right through the Tennessee front.

The Titans made some changes to their offensive line this offseason but I don't think the blockers will be able to handle Minnesota's ferocious front seven and QB Mariota will be in for a rough afternoon, I can’t see new signing RB Murray finding many open lanes either as running into DT Floyd and DT Joseph will prove to be extremely difficult. For me the big factor in this match-up is the experience the Vikings’ defence has playing together and it should give them a big edge over a Tennessee offense that has fewer elite players and less experience together.

 It won't be pretty, but the Vikings should be able to do enough to put themselves in position to win this contest and I’m taking the Vikings -2.5 at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets

My Prices - Bengals 2.04 Jets 1.96

Vegas Line - Bengals -2.5

The Bengals lost a lot of production this offseason on both sides of the ball, but the offense took the biggest hit losing two WR and an OT, can QB Dalton cope as I have a feeling he will regress this season and if he can’t continue to put up big numbers through the air then that will place a lot of emphasis on the running game where to be fair they have two decent RB in Hill & Bernard, trouble there is the Jets’ defensive front is stellar at stuffing the run though with the trio of DE Richardson, DE Wilkerson and DE Williams, although the first named is suspended for this match.

On defence the Bengals look to have an above average unit, possibly the best in the AFC North but they lost a couple of key players in their secondary, especially at the corner position, so the Jets may have some success throwing to talented receivers Decker & Marshall as they match up well here.

I’m a bit surprised by this spread of Jets +2.5. I do realise that the Bengals have put together five straight winning seasons (all resulting in Wild Card playoff losses), but being favourites in New York to a very solid team in the Jets is pushing it a bit. I make the spread Jets -0.5 so to get +2.5 is giving us 3 points of line value and on that basis I’m backing the Jets +2.5 at 1.99 with Matchbook.