NFL Week Three

WEEK 3 – NFL

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

My Prices – Vikings 2.90 Panthers 1.52

Vegas Line - Panthers -7

The Panthers finally opened their winning account last week against a poor 49ers side after losing the opener in Denver. However, their struggles in Denver were predictable as their offensive tackles are a liability and they couldn't protect QB Newton against the fierce Denver pass rush.

This will prove to be a major problem again in this matchup as the Vikings have a couple of dynamic edge rushers in DE Griffen and DE Hunter who will be able to pressure Newton, so Cam’s protection is going to be a issue as the Vikings defence is every bit as good as Denver’s. It would help if the Panthers could run the ball, but that will prove difficult as well. Not only will first choice RB Stewart be missing from this match-up, but the Vikings have one of the top run defences in the NFL, allowing a paltry 3.3 Yards Per Carry , of course QB Newton will pick up a handful of first downs with his legs, but I can't imagine Carolina's offense being overly consistent.

Carolina’s secondary was thought to be the team’s biggest weakness going into the season, but so far it has been strong, it will face a different test though against the Vikings as WR Diggs has been the best receiver in the league over the 1^st two weeks. Vikings QB Bradford is naturally careful with the ball and if he can connect with Diggs on a regular basis then the Vikings will be able to move the chains and score.

The Vikings run game has been non-existent so far this season and can only improve but with RB Peterson out and a Carolina elite front 7 baring down on the QB the Vikings may have trouble moving the chains once more on the ground, but to be fair this hasn’t stopped them racking up two wins in the opening two games.

I think this line is an overreaction to two things, one RB Peterson being out for the Vikings and two Carolina's 46-27 win over San Francisco. The 49ers were coming off a big victory in a late Monday night game then had to travel across the country to play an early start, and yet they hung around while the Panthers made some sloppy errors. I don't think that bodes well for this matchup, as Carolina will lose outright if it commits the same sort of mistakes against one of the best defences in the league.

I’m backing the Vikings +7 at 1.95 with Sporting Bet.

Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Ravens 1.61 Jaguars 2.65

Vegas Line - Ravens -1

The Jaguars got everyone excited following their Week 1 showing against the Packers, but based on what we saw last Sunday night, Green Bay might not be the team we thought they are. Jacksonville also has some major injury issues with CB Amukamara and OT Beachum banged up and for me it’s difficult to win without your best defensive back and top offensive lineman.

The Ravens’ front-7 has looked awesome over the first 2 weeks, pressuring the QB and making them pay hard and often. The Jaguars have a terrible offensive line, especially more so now that Beachum is out, so with QB Bortles under pressure, the Jaguars would be smart to move to a dink and dunk offense, but I don’t really think they’re built for that. Wide receivers Robinson and Hurns are both excellent but their strength really is the long-ball, and I like the Ravens’ chances of shutting this phase of the game out, especially with CB Smith and S Weddle patrolling the secondary. So QB Bortles won't have much time in the pocket to find his dynamic receivers downfield, and he also won't have much support from his rushing attack, as the Ravens can stop the run pretty well holding opponents to a stellar 2.7 YPC on the season so far.

The Ravens scored 23 straight points in the 2^nd half against the Browns last week and I expect similar here as the Jaguars aren’t much better defensively, there secondary has holes through injury and their pass rush is non-existent, the Ravens offensive line has protected QB Flacco well over the first two games and he should have enough time to hit his receivers for significant gains throughout the afternoon.

Now the Ravens are quite clearly the better team but the only thing that worries me is Baltimores running attack which is really poor, this will keep them from putting the Jags away late in the game and we could fall to a backdoor cover in garbage time, but I make this spread Ravens -6 so once more we’re getting massive line value and I’m looking at backing the Ravens -1.5 with Paddy Power who go an amazing 2.0 when the rest of the books are between 1.85 & 1.90.

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts

My Prices – Chargers 2.50 Colts 1.66

Vegas Line – Chargers +1.5

The Colts QB Luck couldn’t do anything against the Broncos last week, they destroyed him with a ridiculous amount of pressure; and for me the Colts offensive line is especially weak on the right side. The Chargers will put some heat on Luck, but not nearly as much as Denver applied. Luck, as a result, will have a chance to engineer some consistent drives. The Chargers, however, own a trio of very potent cornerbacks and they put the clamps on Jacksonville's aerial attack last week so it’s more than possible they could hinder Luck's receivers in this match.

For me the way to beat San Diego's is by ground and pound and generally just getting the ball to the running back, just like the Chiefs did with Spencer Ware in Week 1. The problem for the Colts is that RB Gore isn't nearly the same player he once was and I can’t see them having too much success there.

The Colts are a mess. They can't block, pressure the quarterback, stop the run or cover anyone and the Chargers QB Rivers torched the Jaguars last week so with all the injuries in Indy’s secondary (they lost 5 cornerbacks to injury against Denver) I can’t see who can slow Rivers down in this matchup. I also like the Chargers RB Gordon as he has emerged as one of the better young running backs in the league and he can trample a weak Indianapolis front seven into the ground.

I can see this being a ground based game and on that basis the over/under points total of 51 is set too high and I’m predicting a much lower scoring game myself, in fact my model reckons there will be 42 points in total so with such a discrepancy I’m backing under 51 points at 1.97 with Matchbook.