NFL Week Four

Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins

My Prices – Browns 3.60 Redskins 1.32

Vegas Line - Redskins -7.5

The Redskins have some significant injuries on their offensive line and in their secondary  coming into this match, their offence looks devoid of ideas at times and personally I don’t think their coached very well. The Browns always seem to find a way to lose as bad teams tend to do but I don’t think they are as bad as everybody thinks, they have a functional QB in Kessler and a decent offensive line which has been blocking very well and opening gaps for the running backs who by the way are the 4th best running unit in my rankings after week 3. Washington doesn’t stop the run very well at all, allowing 4.6 yards per carry and coming in at 22^nd on my ground defence rankings so we get a mismatch there in the Browns favour and RB Crowell & Johnson should both have big games. 

Washington’s secondary is their strength but is missing FS Hall through injury and that will weaken the unit so the Browns could have some success through the air but I don’t see them being able to score consistently, personally I expect them to pound the rock and keep the ball on the ground.

As I mentioned the Redskins do have liabilities on their offensive line, trouble is the pass rush is the Browns weakness as they just don’t have the players to exploit the holes in the Redskins line so QB Cousins will have time in the pocket to find his receivers but and this is a big but the Redskins QB’s performances in the red zone have to be considered here. Cousins has been awful this year deep in the oppositions half so I can see the Redskins possibly having to settle for more threes than sevens.

Also Washington’s decision not to address the offensive line in the offseason is affecting the ground game in a negative way as the Redskins are averaging just 3.9 YPC, this won’t change against the Browns who happen to defend well against the run.

I don’t trust the Browns to cover the spread as they are still a bad team but I can see a low scoring game here due to Washington’s redzone woes and the Browns poor passing game, the line is set at 47.5 which I feel is a little too high and I’m taking the under at 1.93 with Marathon Bet.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

My Prices – Titans 2.60 Texans 1.62

Vegas Line – Texans -5

The Texans offense was shut out against the Patriots last week and they didn’t even cross the half-way line until the end of the 3rd quarter, that’s how bad they were and given all their injuries I feel this line of -5 is too much to overcome for a very limited offence who weigh in plum last at number 32 on my offensive rankings, the Titans defensive line should take advantage of this and get some pressure on QB Osweiler who needs to have a good game and connect with elite WR Hopkins as often as possible as the Texans don’t have much of a chance of establishing a ground game due to their poor offensive line and the Titans ability to stop the rush.

With pro-bowl defender JJ Watt ruled out for the year the Texans defence has just took a massive downgrade and with the Patriots giving the league the blueprint on how to beat the Texans last week I expect the Titans to establish RB Murray to pound the rock and feast on a defence that gives up a horrible 4.8 yards a carry on the ground and is ranked a poor 22^nd on my run stopping defensive numbers. The Texans do defend the pass quite well but QB Mariota has some nice offensive weapons in TE Walker and WR Sharpe so he definitely won’t be completely shut down, but I do expect the Texans to pressure him at stages during the match.

This is a huge divisional battle for both teams and I was very impressed last week with the Titans defence as they kept the leagues number one offence to just 17 points and for me there an underrated unit, this week they play the league’s worst offence and I can see the Titans covering the spread here and possibly winning outright but I’m taking the points and backing the Titans +5 at 1.91 with Skybet.

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

My Prices – Rams 3.30 Cardinals 1.43

Vegas Line – Cardinals -8

Arizona have struggled offensively with the regression of QB Palmer becoming more and more evident as the season progresses, the Rams have a stout defence lead by an elite front-7 that can swarm the quarter-back and the Cardinals have struggled protecting Palmer this season, so don’t be surprised if the passing attack continues to turn the ball over. If this happens the Cards will have to establish talented RB Johnson but the Rams also defend the rush very well allowing only 3.4 YPC, trouble there is Johnson is possibly the best back in the league and will get his yards regardless, it’s just a matter of how efficient he will be in the process. For me it looks like Arizona will be very inconsistent on offence.

If only the Rams had an offence that could match their elite defence, the only weapon they have on this side of the ball is RB Gurley who in my opinion will be one of the greats by the time his career finishes, he needs to have a big game here and he may do as the Cards haven’t defended the run very well this season allowing 4.8 YPC and ranking 19^th on my run defence numbers. It’s vital that Gurley gets established early and exploits the Cardinals weakness on the ground because the Rams QB Keenum can’t be trusted against a very talented secondary and the Rams have nobody in their receivers to really stretch a top class unit.

This spread of +8 is way too high as I make it +5 at the very most so we’re getting some serious line value here and for me when the books are giving more than a touchdown to an elite defence it’s always worth a second look as the games often turn into defensive battles which are generally close. The Cardinals are not as good a team as they were last year and the truth is Palmer is done as a top level QB and if the Rams defence can get to him on a regular basis I can see him not even finishing the game.

I’m taking the Rams +8 at 1.95 with Ladbrokes.