Week One Previews

WEEK 1 – NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

My Prices - Patriots 1.66 Steelers 2.50

Vegas Line - Patriots -7

This line seems fair to me as Tom Brady won his appeal and will play for the current Superbowl champions, the Steelers have no defence and even though there offense looks good they are missing three key players for this match, Le'Veon Bell, Martavis Bryant and Maurkice Pouncey. This will hurt them and the Patriots will get the win but I’m not sure if they will cover the spread.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

My Prices – Packers 1.56 Bears 2.80

Vegas Line – Packers -7

Rodgers is the best QB in the league and Chicago’s defence is awful, Green Bay usually beat up there divisional rivals and the Chicago QB Jay Cutler is 1-10 vs. the Packers. All this points to Green Bay covering the spread, I just can’t see how the Bears defence is going to stop Rodgers picking them apart. Vegas sportsbooks have a lot of liability on this game as the Packers have seen 92% of bets; I don’t like taking Vegas on when they have a lot of liability so I’ll sit this one out but it will be interesting to see if the Bears get within 7.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

My Prices – Chiefs 2.18 Texans 1.86

Vegas Line – Texans -1

The Chiefs offensive line is not very good and they will not be able to stop JJ Watt and the best Defensive line in the NFL, Alex Smith is in for a tough night as he won’t get any protection. The Texans have their own problems at QB but should be able to run the ball here as the Chiefs couldn’t stop the run last year at all. I can’t find a way in and I’m passing this game over.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

My Prices Browns 2.38 Jets 1.72

Vegas Line – Jets -3

Cleveland is going to be poor this season and the Jets have one of the best Defensive lines in the NFL, trouble is the Jets offense is as bad as its defence is good so I can’t have them at -3. They should be looking at winning this game though as there next 3 assignments are very, very tough. At the prices I’ll let it slide.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills

My Prices Colts 1.81 Bills 2.19

Vegas Line – Colts -3

The Bills defence is immense and they’ve got a slight upgrade in QB with Taylor but can they stop the Colts? Andrew Luck is the 2^nd best QB in the league and the team around him have had a collective upgrade, having said that, things will be very difficult for Luck in this contest as the Colts weakness is its offensive line. The Bills shouldn't be -3 point home underdogs because they're a much better team than last year but on the other hand, the Colts have improved as well. I’m leaving this one alone and watching with interest.

Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins

My Prices – Dolphins 1.66 Redskins 2.50

Vegas Line – Miami -4

How are the Dolphins not going to demolish the Redskins? Miami is by the far the superior team, there on their way up, the Redskins, meanwhile, are a complete disaster. There's so much turmoil within the organization, from top to bottom, that I'll be surprised if they win more than three games this year. Miami -4 looks solid @ 2.0 and I’ll be taking some of that.

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars

My Prices – Panthers 1.64 Jaguars 2.55

Vegas Line – Carolina -3.5

The Panthers' season’s dreams took a massive hit when Kelvin Benjamin was lost for the year. A receiver normally wouldn't have that sort of impact on a team, but Benjamin was extremely important for Carolina as they have no other weapons. The Jaguars have improved in the off season but the Panthers have a stellar front seven, and their line should be able to win the battle in the trenches here as the Jaguars couldn't block if their lives depended on it last year.

The sharps in Vegas like the Jaguars here and we have seen the line been backed down from +4.

Seattle Seahawks at St Louis Rams

My Prices – Seahawks 1.72 Rams 2.38

Vegas Line – Seattle -4

Super Bowl losers are 5-16 ATS in their first game the following season but the Seahawks will make things happen here as they have by far the better team and will remember last year’s loss to the Rams and will be determined it won’t happen again. The Rams Stud running back Todd Gurley won’t be ready for this season opener and despite the improvements to the Rams team the Seahawks will take care of business in St Louis.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

My Price – Saints 2.32 Cardinals 1.72

Vegas Line – Arizona -2.5

The Cardinals are 26-11 ATS at home as underdogs or favourites of less than -3 since 2007 which equates to a 70% success rate which equals odds of 1.42.

This spread is way off. The Cardinals are probably the better team...just, they have a home field advantage (see above); on the flip side, the Saints aren't nearly as potent on the road and there secondary is awful and this will be exploited by the Cards John Brown. 

Take the 1.94 on Arizona -2.5

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers

My Price – Lions 2.35 Chargers 1.75

Vegas Line – San Diego -3

Dating back to 1989, Week 1 road underdogs that made the playoffs the previous year are just 5-21-1 against the spread. Detroit is identified by this system.

The Chargers have a decent offense as long as Rivers is healthy and while the Lions' defence won't be nearly as dominant this season, the scoring unit should at least be better and this could be a high scoring game. I like the Chargers for a small play on the handicap here due to the trend I noted above.

Help yourself to the 2.04 available on the Chargers -3 as the trends show this to be a strong position.

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

My Prices - Titans 2.38 Buccaneers 1.72

Vegas Line – Tampa Bay -3

Tampa Bay can’t get any worse than they were last season the Buccaneers' really were awful, in the off season there defence has been improved & they have a new rookie QB so things are on the up. Tennessee are also in re-building mode, there defence has also been improved and also sport a new rookie QB who in my opinion has by far the better potential. I’m happy to watch this game with interest too see which direction the franchises are going to be going in but won’t be playing.

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

My prices – Bengals 1.66 Raiders 2.50

Vegas Line – Cincinnati -3.5

The Raiders have struggled for a long time now but the team is moving in the right direction and this will be a good test to see where they are, at the end of last season they went 3-0 at home, is this an omen for the future? The Bengals are a solid playoff team who should be thereabouts again. I’m going to sit this one out to see where the teams levels are.

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos

My Prices – Ravens 2.55 Broncos 1.64

Vegas Line – Denver -4.5

Dating back to 1989, Week 1 road underdogs that made the playoffs the previous year are just 5-21-1 against the spread. Baltimore is identified by this system.

The key to this game seems to be the Denver offensive line against the Baltimore pass rush and I can see Manning hitting plenty of big gains to tight ends and receivers. Baltimore are a decent team and victory won’t come easy but Denver at home are very strong and I’m taking them to cover the spread.

Back Denver -4.5 at 2.05 with Matchbook

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

My Prices – Giants 3.00 Cowboys 1.50

Vegas Line – Dallas -6

Dallas could struggle here to contain the pass as their top cornerback is out and they were very poor last season defensively. New York has a potentially explosive offense and we could see a very high scoring game here. Dallas has won five of the last six meetings but I can see New York covering the spread here, they are my season underdogs and +6 is too much of a headstart in my opinion, both teams have defensive woes for this season opener so we will see a very open game.

New York Giants +6 at 1.98 looks a decent wager.

Mondays games to follow.