Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
My Prices –
Falcons 6.80 Panthers 1.18
Vegas Line –
Panthers -8.5
Atlanta's defence is not very good; they rank 22nd
and 21st against the pass and rush respectively. They also have the
fewest sacks this season in the NFL, so Carolina will have all the time it
needs to get its offence working. The Panthers have a top six rushing attack
and Newton & Stewart will both have room to run as the Falcons have been
extremely poor on the ground giving up 345 rushing yards over the past two
weeks.
Because of their poor defence, the Falcons will have to turn
it on offensively to compete with the Panthers, trouble is for the best part of
the season their offence has been poor, ranking 24th overall in my
figures. Atlanta’s QB Matt Ryan has regressed this year despite having one of
the best receivers in the league in Julio Jones as a target, he has been
particularly poor in the red-zone throwing numerous picks and he hasn’t shown
he’s capable of doing anything against a stout defence.
The Falcons won't have much more success running the ball
either as Carolina are very strong against the run, coming in at 3rd
in my rankings.
The Panthers are the better team with an average winning
margin this year of 10.7 points and they could easily blowout the Falcons here
as they match up very well. However despite all of their losing Atlanta hasn’t
been beaten by more than 10 points all season, so with that in mind I’m buying
a point and taking Carolina -7.5 at
1.92 with Matchbook.
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
My Prices –
Redskins 2.50 Bears 1.66
Vegas Line –
Bears -3.5
The Redskins
were unbelievably poor offensively against the Cowboys last week, they just
didn't know how to respond to the same blitz that Dallas brought over and over
and over again, the reason for this ineptitude was a power outage and all there
tablets went down on the sidelines. That might sound silly, but not having the
ability to scheme against the opponent’s strategy and make adjustments in-play
is a massive disadvantage.
Washington’s
offence is at its best through the air and QB Cousins can keep the ball moving
through Reed, Jackson and Garcon, they don’t run the ball very well at all which
is a shame as the Bears run defence is non-existent.
Offensively
the Bears run the ball very well and they have two terrific running backs in
Matt Forte and Jeremy Langford who will keep the chains moving if inconsistent
QB Cutler can’t manage to do that through the air. Washington's defence has
improved as the season has moved along and this should be an interesting matchup.
When we get
this close to the end of the season we can look at the motivational angle as it
carries a lot of weight with divisional and playoff tussles going on and as it
stands Chicago is out of the playoff picture with a 5-7 record. Losing to the
49ers last week ended their season so I don't see them putting maximum effort
in here. Washington is in a four way divisional title battle and maximum effort
is guaranteed.
Also when
the Bears win it's never by a wide margin. This year has seen victories by 2,
1, 3, 24 (the Rams gave up and their offence are horrible) and 4. This game is
between two evenly matched teams with possibly more desire coming out of
Washington so with everything considered I’m taking the points and backing the Redskins +3.5 at 1.97 with Matchbook.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
My Prices –
Raiders 3.00 Broncos 1.50
Vegas Line –
Broncos -7
The Broncos
are hot right now but is their offence overrated? QB Osweiler has been an
upgrade over Manning for sure but the Denver offence is still only averaging
5.7 yards per play which is a very average number. Throw into the mix all the injuries
the Broncos are dealing with right now, 16 first team players were limited or
didn’t practise at all this past week and that put’s question marks over a lot
of key players.
They're also
favoured by too much here considering that they've scored just 17 points in two
of Osweiler's three starts and in my opinion with the current injury situation Denver’s
not offensively potent enough to cover the 7 point margin.
Like the
Broncos, the Raiders will have issues scoring. Denver's defence is elite level
and it should be able to limit Oakland, saying that though if Pro Bowl centre
Rodney Hudson play’s(Oakland have gone 1-3 since he was injured) then he will
protect QB Carr against Denver's ferocious pass rush and that will give him
time to connect with his receivers.
The Raiders
are much better than their 5-7 record shows, especially if they get their Pro
Bowl centre back. They should have beaten the Chiefs last week and had they done
so they wouldn't be favoured by a touchdown here. They may not win in Denver
but I reckon they’ll keep it close so I’m
backing Oakland +7 at 1.91 with Sportingbet.
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