Week Fifteen Preview

Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers

My Prices – Broncos 2.30 Steelers 1.76

Vegas Line – Steelers -6.5

During the past five weeks the Steelers have gone 4-1 and have been unstoppable, torching defences, averaging 390 passing yards and scoring 30 plus points in each match. They currently sit at 3^rd on my offensive rankings (5^th through the air and 2^nd on the ground). They have fantastic playmakers in QB Roethlisberger, RB Williams and WR’s Brown, Bryant & Wheaton.

Denver has the number one ranked defence (1^st against the pass & 3^rd against the run), they have held Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards, handed Tom Brady his first defeat of the season and lead the league in sacks with 44 so the Steelers offence won’t be getting things all their own way.

The Broncos offensive line continues to be a problem though and they will have trouble protecting Osweiler but the Denver QB can exploit Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary and move the chains through receivers Thomas & Saunders and TE Davis.

This has the makings of a great game with playoff implications for both teams and it looks to me the Steelers are giving away too many points as I make the line Steelers -3. I believe Pittsburgh is over-valued due to their win last week against a Bengals side missing its QB Dalton and star TE Eifert. We are getting huge value on Denver here and I’m taking the Broncos +6.5 at 2.02 with Matchbook.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers

My Prices – Bengals 1.47 49ers 3.20

Vegas Line – Bengals -5.5

Despite losing QB Dalton with a broken thumb the Bengals are the more talented team in this match-up and have a defence which should shut down the lowest-scoring offence in the league.

Back up QB McCarron steps up for the Bengals and he just has to be competent really to ensure victory as the 49ers defence is woeful, especially against the run (ranked 30^th), Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard must be licking their lips at the prospect of trampling over San Francisco’s non-existent run defence.

San Francisco QB Gabbert continues to play solid football despite his offensive line being unable to block, Cincinnati’s pass rush is top quality (ranked 7^th) so the 49ers QB is in for a rough evening and I can see him having trouble moving the chains.

The 49ers look finished for the season to me, they surrendered nine sacks last week and looked completely hopeless on both sides of the ball. The Bengals on the other hand need to keep on winning as the Steelers are breathing down their necks in the race for the AFC North title. The handicap line has been heavily bet up by the public and the original line was Bengals -4.5 so that’s what I’m taking at 1.91 with Totesport.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles

My Prices – Cardinals 1.54 Eagles 2.90

Vegas Line – Cardinals -3.5

The Cardinals have an almost unstoppable pass attack with QB Palmer playing at a very high level and with so many weapons at his disposal they weigh-in at 2^nd in my offensive rankings. However if there's a strength to this inconsistent Eagles team it's the pass rush. The Eagles' defensive front dominated the trenches in last week's victory against the Bills and to have a chance here they need more of the same.

The Eagles have a serious problem with their secondary though and have struggled to cover receivers all season, with the Cardinals wide men Fitzgerald, Brown & Floyd all playing extremely well this is a very good match up for Arizona and they could rack up a lot of points.

On the other side of the ball the Cardinals only give up 19.4 points per game, the fourth lowest average in the NFL. They have a top 4 ranked defence which rushes the passer and stops the run very well. The Eagles don't have the best blocking or the best receivers so once again Arizona matches up very nicely.

I make the Cardinals -6 on my figures and can see them bouncing back from a stuttering effort last week and stopping the Eagles offence in its tracks while putting up some points themselves via their potent offence. I’m backing Arizona -3.5 at 2.02 with Matchbook.